San Antonio Real Estate Market 2026

As of May 2026, the San Antonio resale market presents a picture of measured softening rather than distress. The median sale price on closed transactions stands at $295,000, flat on a year-over-year basis at 0.0%, while the median days on market has extended to 66 days, a figure that, in context, reflects buyers exercising patience rather than urgency. The sale-to-list ratio of 0.9733 confirms that sellers are accepting modest concessions, consistent with a market that has shifted away from the multiple-offer dynamics of prior cycles.

Supply accumulation is the defining structural feature of the current moment. Active inventory sits at 10,113 listings across the county. Months of supply has reached 5.2, a level that places the market in territory conventionally associated with buyer advantage. The median price per square foot of $154 provides a useful cross-check on the headline median; taken together, these figures suggest that price discovery is ongoing rather than settled.

One nuance worth flagging: the market snapshot data above reflects third-party observed sale-market figures based on median sale price of closed sales. These figures are distinct from the ACS owner-estimated home values and the Verus-AI forecast series discussed in subsequent sections, and they are not inputs to either. Readers should treat the two data streams as complementary rather than directly comparable.

The population-weighted median owner-estimated home value across San Antonio's 369 scored tracts is $244,000. That figure sits meaningfully below the $295,000 median sale price recorded in the current transaction market, a gap that reflects both the ACS survey methodology and the compositional differences between the owner-estimated and closed-sale populations. Neither figure is wrong; they measure related but distinct things.

Appreciation across the scored universe has been uneven, and the dispersion in the Verus-AI forecast distribution illustrates this clearly. The mean five-year forecast across all 369 scored tracts is 31.91%, while the median sits at 34.7%, a negative skew driven by a tail of low-scoring tracts with subdued or negative outlooks. The 10th-percentile forecast is 23.19%, and the 90th-percentile forecast is 37.01%, indicating that the upper end of the distribution compresses while the lower end stretches downward. That asymmetry is a useful corrective to any uniform optimism about San Antonio appreciation.

The historical record of the leading tract, San Antonio - Tract 2201, illustrates the range of outcomes the market has produced. Its observed value rose from $59,800 in 2014 to $164,400 in 2024, a trajectory visible in the forecast chart accompanying this page. The pace was not linear: values stalled briefly around 2017 before accelerating through the 2020-2022 period, then continued to climb more moderately. That pattern of interrupted appreciation, rather than smooth compounding, is characteristic of census-tract-level data and argues against treating any single-year reading as representative of the underlying trend.

The Verus-AI model scores 369 San Antonio tracts on a 100-point scale. The score distribution runs from a minimum of 16 to a maximum of 80, with a median of 57 and a 75th-percentile threshold of 63. The 15 highest-ranked tracts in the ranked table below span a Verus score range of 73 to 80 and carry grades from B- through B+. Three tracts achieve the maximum observed score of 80 among the 20 tracts shown in the ranked tables: San Antonio - Tract 2201, San Antonio - Tract 1915, and Beacon Hill, each graded B+.

Within those 15 top-ranked tracts, 9 carry a Low risk designation and 5 carry a Moderate risk designation; only 1, Kirby, carries an Elevated risk designation. Fourteen of the 15 top-ranked tracts carry either Low or Moderate risk, though it is worth noting that this does not mean all 15 are free of elevated risk. The single Elevated-risk entry, Kirby, scores 73 and carries a B- grade, suggesting the model is discounting its risk profile against otherwise favorable fundamentals.

Current values among the top 15 range widely, from $116,521 for San Antonio - Tract 0902 to $412,200 for Timberwood Park, which underscores that the Verus-AI score is not a proxy for price level. San Antonio - Tract 0902, for instance, carries a score of 74 and a B- grade despite its relatively modest current value of $116,521, driven in part by a rent-to-price annual yield of 9.66% and income growth of 10.33%. Timberwood Park, by contrast, scores 76 with a current value of $412,200 and a median household income of $132,000, reflecting a different profile of strength. The ranked table below captures the full picture across all 15 tracts.

At the opposite end of the distribution, all five of the lowest-ranked tracts in the ranked tables carry grade F. The Low risk designation on San Antonio - Tract 0005 is notable given its score of 26; with a population of only 53, the tract's statistical reliability is limited, and the risk grade likely reflects data sparsity rather than genuine stability.

The momentum leaders table identifies the 10 tracts with the strongest year-over-year income growth among the scored San Antonio tracts included in that table. Southtown leads with income growth of 23.34%, followed by Denver Heights (tract 48029130300) at 21.54% and West Side at 17.95%. These are not marginal differences; the gap between Southtown's 23.34% and the 10th-place entry, San Antonio - Tract 1302, at 11.76%, is substantial and suggests that income momentum is concentrated rather than broadly distributed.

What makes the momentum table analytically interesting is the divergence between income trajectory and current Verus score. Southtown and Denver Heights (tract 48029130300) each carry a Verus score of 70, solid but not at the top of the ranked set, yet both post five-year forecasts of 37.01%. Brooks, by contrast, scores only 57 (at the scored-universe median of 57.0) despite income growth of 16.75%, and its five-year forecast of 23.2% is notably below the momentum-leader group. That divergence suggests the model is weighting factors beyond income growth, possibly current value levels, rent yields, or historical volatility, in ways that temper the outlook for some high-income-growth tracts.

On the downside, San Antonio - Tract 1408 records the sharpest income decline among the 20 tracts shown in the ranked tables, at -15.48%. Across all 369 scored San Antonio tracts, the steepest year-over-year income decline reaches -39.38%, a figure that underscores how wide the demographic dispersion is within the county. The two figures belong to different populations and should not be conflated; the within-ranked-set figure is relevant for comparing the tracts under direct review, while the scored-universe figure contextualizes the broader distribution.

The Verus-AI model generates five-year forecasts over the 2025-2029 window, using a history window of 2014-2024. Confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning the model assigns an 80% probability that the outcome falls within the band, and should be read as a range of plausible outcomes rather than a guarantee. The mean five-year forecast across all 369 scored San Antonio tracts is 31.91%, with the median at 34.7%. The distribution is left-skewed: the 10th-percentile forecast is 23.19%, while the 75th and 90th percentiles both reach 37.01%, indicating that the upper tail compresses at that ceiling.

The forecast chart for San Antonio - Tract 2201, the leading tract by Verus score, illustrates the model's output structure. The central forecast path rises from an observed 2024 value of $164,400 to a terminal 2029 value of $225,242, implying a five-year appreciation of 37.01% and a CAGR of 6.5%. The 80% confidence band widens materially over the horizon: the terminal lower bound is $178,326 and the terminal upper bound is $284,500, producing a band width of $106,174 at the five-year mark. That widening is expected behavior for a model projecting over a multi-year horizon and is not a signal of model instability; it reflects genuine uncertainty about the path of local economic conditions.

Among the top 15 ranked tracts, the forecast range is narrower than the full scored universe but still shows meaningful dispersion. Converse (tract 48029131601) stands out with a five-year forecast of only 25.27%, the lowest among the 15 top-ranked tracts, despite carrying a Verus score of 74 and a B- grade. Its current value of $391,800 and median household income of $130,290 suggest a tract that has already captured a significant portion of its appreciation potential, leaving less room for further gains in the model's view. At the other extreme, the Alamo Heights tract in the bottom five (tract 48029120100) carries a five-year forecast of -4.9%, the only negative forecast among the 20 tracts shown in the ranked tables, consistent with its grade of F and High risk designation.

The scored universe's forecast distribution also reveals a structural feature worth noting: the 75th and 90th percentiles are identical at 37.01%, which indicates that a meaningful share of tracts cluster at or near that ceiling in the model's output. This compression at the top of the distribution is a modeling artifact worth acknowledging, it does not mean that all high-scoring tracts are interchangeable, but it does mean that differentiation among the top quartile depends more on current value, income trajectory, and risk grade than on the forecast percentage alone.

The Verus-AI model covers 390 census tracts within San Antonio (county FIPS 48029). Of those, 369 carry sufficient transaction and demographic history to be scored, representing 94.6% of all constituent tracts. The remaining 21 tracts are unscoreable, typically due to thin transaction volume or incomplete ACS coverage. The total population represented across the scored universe is 2,186,370.

Scores are expressed on a 0-to-100 scale. The current distribution runs from a minimum of 16 to a maximum of 80, with a median of 57 and a mean of 57.05, a near-symmetric central tendency that suggests the model is not systematically biased toward high or low scores at the county level. The 10th-percentile score is 47 and the 90th-percentile score is 68, indicating that the bulk of tracts cluster in a relatively tight band while the tails, particularly the lower tail, extend further.

The history window used for model training spans 2014 to 2024, and the forecast window covers 2025 to 2029. All confidence bands are 80% intervals. Climate, demographic, and forecast figures are backward- or model-derived estimates; the model does not project beyond the 2029 horizon present in the data. The market snapshot figures, median sale price, active inventory, days on market, and related metrics, are third-party observed sale-market data as of May 2026 and are explicitly not inputs to the Verus-AI score or forecast. Readers should not treat the ACS owner-estimated values and the closed-sale median price as interchangeable; they are constructed differently and will diverge in both level and direction at any given point in time.

Grade assignments follow the score scale: B+ corresponds to the highest scores in the current distribution (80), while F grades appear at the low end (scores of 16 through 27 in the current ranked set). Risk grades, Low, Moderate, Elevated, High, are assigned independently of the Verus score and reflect a separate assessment of downside exposure. A tract can carry a Low risk grade and a low Verus score simultaneously, as San Antonio - Tract 0005 illustrates; in that case, the Low risk designation reflects data sparsity and limited transaction history rather than a positive fundamental outlook.