Alamo Heights Real Estate (San Antonio, 2026)

Alamo Heights, also known locally as the 09er and by its ZIP code 78209, is a suburb-city within the San Antonio metro. The Verus-AI model covers all 10 of its constituent tracts, giving the analysis complete tract-level resolution across a total population of 48,526. The population-weighted median home value sits at $349,000, a figure that, as the ranked table below makes clear, masks substantial internal dispersion: current values across the 10 tracts range from $157,362 at the low end to $811,400 at the high end.

The neighborhood's mean Verus-AI score of 52.1 and median of 52.0 place it squarely at the midpoint of the scored distribution, where the model's 50th percentile across all scored tracts is 52.0. That alignment is not a sign of uniformity within Alamo Heights; it reflects a wide internal spread from a score of 19 to a score of 77 that the neighborhood average obscures. Investors accustomed to treating Alamo Heights as a monolithic prestige market should note that the grade distribution across the 10 tracts includes two F grades, one D, three D+ grades, three C grades, and only one B, a profile that is considerably more mixed than the neighborhood's reputation might suggest.

The mean five-year forecast of 26.62% across the neighborhood is pulled downward by one tract projecting a decline of -4.9% and upward by several tracts clustered at 37.01%. The forecast percentile distribution shows a 10th-percentile outcome of 13.66% and a 90th-percentile outcome of 37.01%, indicating that the upper tail is compressed while the lower tail carries meaningful downside for specific tracts. That asymmetry is worth holding in mind as the tract-level detail is examined below.

The ranked table below presents all 10 Alamo Heights tracts ordered by Verus-AI score. The leading tract, 48029191005, carries a score of 77 and a B grade, the only B in the set, with a current value of $157,362 and a five-year forecast of 37.01%, implying a model-derived terminal value of $215,599 by 2029. Its income year-over-year figure of 13.39% is the strongest positive reading among the 10 tracts shown in the ranked table, and its rent-to-price annual yield of 10.07% is notably elevated relative to the higher-value tracts in the set. The forecast chart for this leading tract shows the 80% confidence band widening from a $30,440 spread in 2025 to $88,045 by 2029, a reminder that even the top-ranked tract carries material uncertainty at the five-year horizon.

Three tracts, 48029191005, 48029190902, and 48029191004, share a five-year forecast of 37.01%, yet their scores diverge from 77 to 64 to 62. That divergence reflects differences in income trajectory and risk grade rather than price appreciation potential alone. Tract 48029191004, for instance, carries a score of 62 despite the same 37.01% forecast, partly because its income year-over-year figure is -11.0%, one of the steeper declines among the 10 tracts shown in the ranked table. Tract 48029190901 forecasts 33.87% with a score of 60 and a Low risk grade, making it the highest-scoring Low-risk tract in the set.

At the other end of the table, tract 48029120100 scores 19, the lowest score among the 10 tracts shown in the ranked table, and is the only tract in the set projecting a nominal price decline, at -4.9% over five years. Its rent-to-price annual yield of 16.56% is the highest in the ranked table of 10 Alamo Heights tracts by a wide margin, a figure that typically reflects either distressed pricing or a structural mismatch between rental income and asset value rather than genuine yield quality. The tract carries a High risk grade and a current value of $161,135, which is low relative to the neighborhood median of $349,000.

The bottom five tracts, detailed in the lower portion of the ranked table, present a varied risk profile. Two carry F grades (48029120100 and 48029120301), one carries a D grade (48029120702), and two carry D+ grades (48029120800 and 48029120701). Three of the five bottom tracts show negative income year-over-year figures: tract 48029120301 at -14.7%, which is the sharpest income decline across all 10 scored Alamo Heights tracts; tract 48029120702 at -10.95%; and tract 48029120701 at -4.75%. Two of the five bottom tracts carry High risk grades (48029120100 and 48029120702), two carry Moderate risk grades (48029120301 and 48029120701), and one carries a Low risk grade (48029120800).

The high-value tracts in the middle of the ranking, 48029120302 at $811,400 current value and 48029120301 at $724,800, score 52 and 37, respectively, despite their elevated absolute price levels. This is a counter-intuitive pattern: the two highest-priced tracts in the set do not rank among the top scorers. Tract 48029120302 carries a D+ grade with a forecast of 22.47% and a rent-to-price annual yield of 3.51%, while tract 48029120301 carries an F grade with a forecast of only 15.72% and an income year-over-year figure of -14.7%. The implication is that high absolute price does not, in the Verus-AI framework, substitute for income momentum or risk-adjusted return potential.

Across the full set of 10 tracts, eight carry Low or Moderate risk grades, while two carry High risk grades. That said, the data confirms that not all 10 top-ranked tracts are Low or Moderate risk, the two High-risk tracts (48029120702 and 48029120100) are present in the set.

The Verus-AI model identifies four comparable neighborhoods based on structural similarity to Alamo Heights. The closest match is Independence Heights in the Houston metro, with a similarity score of 99.0% and a Verus-AI score of 72; the current value there is $170,600. Near Northside, also in Houston, carries a 98.0% similarity and a score of 76, with a current value of $196,800. Pine Lake in the Atlanta metro matches at 98.9% with a score of 69 and a current value of $262,657. Pasadena in the Houston metro rounds out the set at 97.9% similarity, a score of 69, and a current value of $223,991.

The comparables are drawn from Houston and Atlanta rather than from San Antonio itself, which suggests the model is finding structural analogs in other Sun Belt metros rather than within the immediate geography. Three of the four comparables are in the Houston metro, which may reflect similarities in housing stock vintage, income profile, or density characteristics rather than any geographic proximity.

Readers seeking tract-level detail on any of these comparable neighborhoods can access the full Verus-AI reports via the deep links provided in the comparables table.

All 10 Alamo Heights tracts have received climate ratings in the Verus-AI model. The modal rating across the neighborhood is Relatively Moderate, which applies to five of the ten tracts. Three tracts carry a Relatively Low rating and one carries a Very Low rating, while one tract carries a Relatively High rating. No tract in the set carries the highest climate risk designation; among the 10 scored Alamo Heights tracts, the Relatively High rating is the most elevated category present, which is a modestly constructive data point relative to other Texas markets where higher ratings may be more prevalent, though the data does not provide a direct cross-market comparison figure here.

The absence of any Opportunity Zone designations across all 10 tracts is a straightforward structural fact: none of the Alamo Heights tracts in this analysis carry OZ status. For investors whose strategies depend on OZ tax treatment, this neighborhood does not qualify. The climate overlay, by contrast, does introduce differentiation within the set: the single Relatively High-rated tract (48029120702) also carries a High risk grade and a Verus-AI score of 46, suggesting that climate exposure and the model's composite risk assessment are directionally aligned for that tract, though the data does not decompose the precise contribution of climate to the overall risk grade.

The concentration of Relatively Moderate ratings, five of ten tracts, indicates that the majority of the neighborhood sits in a middle band of climate exposure rather than at either extreme. The three Relatively Low tracts and one Very Low tract represent the more favorable end of the climate spectrum within the set. Taken together, the climate profile of Alamo Heights does not appear to be a primary differentiator of tract-level scores in this analysis; the larger drivers of score dispersion appear to be income trajectory, forecast appreciation, and risk grade rather than climate rating alone.

The Verus-AI scores presented here are derived from a model trained on data spanning the 2014-2024 history window. Forecasts cover the 2025-2029 window and are expressed as five-year cumulative percentage changes alongside compound annual growth rates. All confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning the model assigns a 20% probability to outcomes falling outside the stated range. The forecast chart for the leading tract illustrates how the band width expands from $30,440 in the first forecast year to $88,045 by 2029, a widening that is typical of multi-year price forecasts and should be interpreted as increasing uncertainty rather than increasing risk per se.

Scores are expressed on a scale of 0 to 100. The score distribution across the scored universe shows a 10th percentile of 35.2, a 25th percentile of 47.5, a median of 52.0, a 75th percentile of 61.5, and a 90th percentile of 65.3, with a minimum of 19.0 and a maximum of 77.0. Alamo Heights' mean score of 52.1 places the neighborhood at approximately the median of the distribution, though the internal range of 19 to 77 spans from below the 10th percentile to the maximum of the distribution.

They are not forward projections and should not be interpreted as predictive of future income trends. Similarly, rent-to-price annual yield figures are model-derived estimates based on available rental and price data; they do not account for vacancy, maintenance, financing costs, or tax treatment, and should not be used as a substitute for property-level underwriting.

Climate ratings are categorical labels assigned by the model and are not decomposed into specific peril contributions in this output. Opportunity Zone designations reflect federal program boundaries as encoded in the model's data vintage and may not reflect subsequent administrative changes. All figures are model-derived estimates; the analysis does not constitute a property appraisal, a lending recommendation, or investment advice of any kind.