Medical Center Real Estate (San Antonio, 2026)

Those two figures together sketch a neighborhood of meaningful scale but modest price levels relative to many peer medical-corridor districts in Texas.

The district's mean five-year forecast of 27.06% sits above the median forecast of 26.53%, indicating a modest right skew: a handful of tracts with higher projected appreciation pull the mean upward. The forecast distribution's 10th percentile is 18.53% and its 90th percentile is 37.01%, a spread of roughly 18.5 percentage points across the district.

Income trends across the district are broadly negative. Among the 14 tracts shown in the ranked table, the sharpest year-over-year income decline belongs to tract 48029181808, at -24.44%, and tract 48029181303 follows at -23.33%. Only tract 48029181003 shows a positive income trend among the 14 ranked tracts, at 9.0%. The prevalence of income contraction is a structural caution that the headline forecast figures alone do not fully convey.

The Verus-AI score distribution across the 14 tracts shown in the ranked table runs from a minimum of 30.0 to a maximum of 63.0, with a mean of 48.29 and a median of 51.5. The 10th percentile sits at 35.3 and the 90th percentile at 58.7, confirming that even the stronger performers among the 14 ranked tracts carry only moderate scores in absolute terms on a scale of 100.

Tract 48029181001 leads the ranked table with a Verus-AI score of 63 and a grade of C, the only C grade among the 14 ranked tracts. Its five-year forecast of 37.01% and a Low risk designation represent a pairing that does not appear in any other tract in the ranked table that also carries a forecast at that level. The current value of $232,900 is above the district's population-weighted median of $219,800 on a raw basis, though the forecast chart for this leading tract shows a projected terminal value of $319,093 by 2029, with an 80% confidence interval spanning $272,715 to $373,358. The width of that terminal band, $100,643, is a reminder that the forecast carries meaningful uncertainty at the five-year horizon.

The grade distribution across the 14 ranked tracts is notably compressed toward the lower end: one C, four C-minus grades, three D-plus grades, two D-minus grades, and four F grades. Six tracts carry a Low risk designation, four carry Moderate, three carry Elevated, and one carries High. The combination of low grades and mixed risk designations is the district's defining analytical tension: risk ratings do not map cleanly onto score rankings. Tract 48029181402, for example, carries a D-minus grade and a Low risk designation alongside the highest rent-to-price yield among the 14 ranked tracts at 10.16%, a figure that may reflect price compression rather than rental-market strength.

Among the five lowest-ranked tracts, four carry F grades and one carries a D-minus grade, so not all five of the bottom tracts are grade F. Three of those five tracts show negative year-over-year income trends: tract 48029181808 at -24.44%, tract 48029181303 at -23.33%, and tract 48029181004 at -13.35%. Risk designations within the bottom five are split: two Moderate, two Elevated, and one Low, indicating that even the weakest-scoring tracts do not uniformly carry the highest risk labels, a pattern that warrants careful reading of the full ranked table rather than reliance on any single metric.

The score ceiling itself is a signal worth noting. Among the 14 ranked tracts, the leading score of 63 sits above the 90th percentile of the district's own distribution.

The Verus-AI model identifies four Houston-area comparables and one San Antonio comparable for the Medical Center district. The San Antonio comparable is East Side (96.7% similarity, score 69, current value $111,054).

The gap is not dramatic at the top of the Medical Center distribution, but it is consistent across all four Houston comparables, which is analytically meaningful.

The East Side comparable in San Antonio carries a score of 69 and a current value of $111,054, a combination that is notable for two reasons. First, its score of 69 exceeds the Medical Center district's maximum score of 63 among the 14 ranked tracts. Second, its current value is substantially below the Medical Center district's population-weighted median of $219,800, suggesting that the model's higher score reflects factors beyond price level. Readers seeking deeper comparable analysis may consult the individual tract reports linked in the comparables table.

The absence of Opportunity Zone designations across all 14 tracts means that tax-advantaged investment structures tied to OZ status are not available within this district, a practical constraint for certain institutional strategies.

The modal climate rating across the district is Relatively Low, with seven of the 14 tracts carrying that designation. Six tracts carry a Relatively Moderate rating, and one tract carries a Very Low rating. No tract in the district carries a High or Very High climate risk label. The distribution is therefore skewed toward the lower end of the climate risk spectrum, which is consistent with San Antonio's inland position and the district's elevation profile, though the analysis does not extend to insurance or lending implications beyond the labels the data provides.

The concentration of Relatively Low and Relatively Moderate ratings across 13 of the 14 tracts suggests that climate risk, as rated in the model, is not a primary differentiator among tracts within this district.

The Verus-AI scores and forecasts presented here are model-derived estimates built on a history window spanning 2014 to 2024 and a forecast window covering 2025 to 2029. The score scale runs from 0 to 100. Confidence bands on the forecast chart are 80% intervals, meaning the model assigns an 80% probability that the realized value will fall within the shown range; they are not guarantees, and 20% of outcomes are expected to fall outside the band by construction.

The terminal 80% confidence band for the leading tract, 48029181001, spans $272,715 to $373,358, a width of $100,643. That band widens progressively from $34,872 in the first forecast year to $100,643 by 2029, reflecting the compounding uncertainty inherent in multi-year price projections. Readers should treat the point forecast values as central tendencies, not precise predictions.

Income year-over-year figures are backward-looking estimates derived from the 2014-2024 history window. Forecast figures are model outputs and should not be interpreted as appraisals, valuations, or representations of future market conditions. The Verus-AI score is a composite index; no single input, including rent-to-price yield, income trend, or risk grade, should be read in isolation. The ranked table and forecast chart are the appropriate primary references for tract-level comparison within this district.