Stone Oak Real Estate (San Antonio, 2026)

Stone Oak is a planned residential district in San Antonio's north side, encompassing 12 scored census tracts and a total population of 79,031. The population-weighted median home value across those 12 tracts stands at $443,700, a figure that reflects the district's upper-middle positioning within the broader San Antonio market.

The district's score distribution is notably compressed. That compression suggests the district does not contain dramatic outliers in either direction, the leading tract at 71 is a genuine standout, but the floor is not catastrophically weak.

Income trends across the district present a more cautionary picture. Of the 12 ranked tracts, the majority show negative year-over-year income changes, a pattern that the Verus-AI model treats as a headwind to sustained price appreciation. The sharpest income decline among the 12 tracts shown in the ranked table belongs to tract 48029191810, at -12.98%. This income divergence is one of the more consequential internal fault lines in the district, and it is discussed further in the scoring section below.

On the forecast side, the district's mean 5-year appreciation estimate is 29.44%, with the median of the forecast distribution sitting at 31.14%. No tract in the district carries an Opportunity Zone designation, and none of the 12 tracts falls outside the Low or Moderate risk categories, a characteristic that distinguishes Stone Oak from higher-volatility suburban corridors elsewhere in Texas.

The grade distribution across all 12 Stone Oak tracts is skewed toward the lower half of the letter-grade scale. One tract earns a B-, two earn C grades, two earn C- grades, five earn D+ grades, and two earn D grades. No tract reaches a B or above. That distribution is worth pausing on: Stone Oak carries a reputation as one of San Antonio's more affluent suburban corridors, yet the Verus-AI composite scoring, which weights forward-looking demand signals alongside historical price performance, places the majority of its tracts in D+ territory. The gap between perceived prestige and model-derived score likely reflects the income headwinds noted above, as well as rent-yield compression in the district's higher-value tracts.

The leading tract, 48029121911, scores 71 on the 100-point scale and carries a B- grade with a Low risk designation. Its current value of $443,700 aligns with the district's population-weighted median, and the Verus-AI model projects a 5-year appreciation of 31.88%, implying a forecast value of $585,157 by 2029. The implied 5-year CAGR for this tract is 5.69%. Its rent-to-price annual yield of 5.07% is among the more balanced in the district, and its income year-over-year growth of 5.58% is the strongest positive reading among the 12 tracts shown in the ranked table, a meaningful differentiator given the broader income softness across the district. The forecast chart for this leading tract illustrates a widening 80% confidence band: the terminal lower bound is $515,486 and the upper bound is $664,245, a band width of $148,759 at the 2029 horizon. That widening is expected over a five-year window and should be read as a reflection of genuine uncertainty rather than model imprecision.

The second- and third-ranked tracts, 48029191819 and 48029191808, score 61 and 60 respectively, both carrying C grades and Low risk designations. Notably, tract 48029191819 carries the highest 5-year forecast appreciation among the 12 tracts shown in the ranked table, at 35.08%, despite ranking second by composite score. That divergence, a lower composite score paired with a higher appreciation forecast, reflects the model's weighting of non-price factors: tract 48029191819 shows a year-over-year income decline of -0.42%, and its rent-to-price yield of 4.75% is below the leading tract's 5.07%. Tract 48029191808 presents a more pronounced version of the same tension: a current value of $575,100, a 5-year forecast of 33.74%, but an income year-over-year decline of -8.64%, which the model penalizes in the composite score.

Two tracts carry Moderate risk designations, 48029121904 and 48029191810, the only two among the 12 scored Stone Oak tracts to do so. Tract 48029191810 is particularly notable: it scores 54, carries a D+ grade, and shows the sharpest income decline among all 12 scored Stone Oak tracts at -12.98%. Its current value of $554,500 is among the higher readings in the district, which means the income deterioration is occurring against a relatively elevated price base, a combination the model treats with caution. Tract 48029121904 scores 58 with a C- grade; its income decline is a more modest -0.18%, and its rent-to-price yield of 5.31% is the highest among the five tracts in the C- to Moderate-risk tier.

The five lowest-ranked tracts, 48029121910, 48029121905, 48029191815, 48029191812, and 48029121118, are detailed in the bottom-ranked table. Two carry D grades and three carry D+ grades; all five carry Low risk designations. Four of the five show negative income year-over-year figures: tract 48029121910 at -3.81%, tract 48029121905 at -4.11%, tract 48029191815 at -1.36%, and tract 48029121118 at -9.21%. The 5-year forecast for the weakest tract, 48029121910, is 20.31%, implying a CAGR of 3.77%, the lowest 5-year appreciation forecast among the 12 tracts shown in the ranked table. The gap between the leading tract's 31.88% forecast and this floor of 20.31% represents a meaningful spread that compounds over a five-year hold period.

Readers are directed to the ranked table below for the full tract-by-tract breakdown of scores, grades, risk designations, current values, forecast values, rent yields, and income trends. The forecast chart for the leading tract, 48029121911, renders the observed 2014–2024 price series alongside the 2025–2029 median forecast and the 80% confidence band.

The Verus-AI model identifies four structurally comparable neighborhoods drawn from other Sun Belt metros, ranked by similarity score. Bloomingdale in Tampa scores 69 with a similarity of 99.5% and a current value of $416,685. Cheval, also in Tampa, scores 69 with a similarity of 98.7% and a current value of $481,800. Cypress in Houston scores 69 with a similarity of 98.1% and a current value of $370,700. Brushy Creek in Austin scores 78 with a similarity of 98.5% and a current value of $674,200.

Three of the four comparables, Bloomingdale, Cheval, and Cypress, each score 69, two points below Stone Oak's leading tract at 71 and well above the district's median score of 54.0. The implication for investors benchmarking Stone Oak against peer markets is that the district's median tract is weaker on the composite model than any of the three 69-scoring comparables, even though the district's top tract edges them out.

Brushy Creek in Austin stands apart from the other three comparables, scoring 78, the highest score among the four comparables listed, with a current value of $674,200, compared to Stone Oak's population-weighted median of $443,700. The more analytically relevant observation is that Brushy Creek's score of 78 exceeds Stone Oak's leading tract score of 71 by seven points, suggesting that the Austin comparable has absorbed a higher price level while still generating a stronger composite signal, a dynamic that may reflect Austin's income growth trajectory relative to San Antonio's.

The comparable set is useful for contextualizing Stone Oak's positioning but should not be read as a direct return forecast for any of those markets. Similarity scores reflect structural resemblance across the model's input variables as of the current data vintage; they do not imply identical forward trajectories. Readers seeking full tract-level detail on any comparable are directed to the deep-link reports available alongside the comparable table.

The modal climate rating across the district is Relatively Moderate, applying to 8 of the 12 tracts. Three tracts are rated Relatively Low, and one tract is rated Very Low. No tract in the district carries a higher-severity climate rating. The absence of any elevated climate designation is consistent with Stone Oak's inland north-side location, which places it outside the flood-prone corridors that affect portions of the broader San Antonio metro.

The absence of Opportunity Zone designations across all 12 tracts is notable from a tax-incentive standpoint. OZ-designated tracts can attract a specific class of institutional and high-net-worth capital seeking deferred or reduced capital gains treatment; Stone Oak's uniformly non-OZ status means that investor demand in the district is driven by fundamentals rather than tax overlay. That is neither an advantage nor a disadvantage in isolation, but it does mean the district's price dynamics are less susceptible to the distortions, both upward and downward, that can accompany OZ capital flows in other markets.

The climate rating distribution, while predominantly Relatively Moderate, does not translate directly into insurance or lending cost estimates in this analysis; the data provides ratings as labels rather than quantified cost impacts. Investors conducting due diligence on specific tracts should treat the Relatively Moderate designation as a starting point for further property-level inquiry rather than a terminal risk assessment. The one tract rated Very Low represents the most favorable climate risk profile among the 12 scored Stone Oak tracts, though the data does not identify which tract carries that designation by tract ID in the overlays block.

Scores reflect the model's synthesis of those inputs as of the current data vintage; they are not static and will update as new data is ingested. The forecast window covers 2025–2029, a five-year horizon. The 80% interval for the leading tract, 48029121911, runs from $515,486 to $664,245 at the 2029 terminal year.

These figures are backward-looking by construction and should not be interpreted as projections of future income growth. Where income trends are cited as a headwind or tailwind to the composite score, that characterization reflects the model's weighting of income momentum as one input among several; it does not imply that income trends are the sole or dominant driver of the score.

Forecast appreciation figures represent the model's median estimate. The forecast values shown in the ranked table and the forecast chart are point estimates at the 50th percentile of the model's output distribution; the upper and lower bounds shown in the chart represent the 80th and 20th percentiles respectively. Realized appreciation will depend on factors the model cannot fully anticipate, including changes in interest rates, local supply conditions, and macroeconomic shocks. The district-level mean 5-year forecast of 29.44% and the tract-level range from 20.31% to 35.08% should be read as model-derived central tendencies, not guarantees.

Comparable neighborhood similarity scores are computed by the Verus-AI model across a set of structural variables and reflect resemblance as of the current data vintage. Similarity does not imply identical market dynamics or forward return profiles. No tract in this analysis is identified as being in an Opportunity Zone, and no OZ-related tax treatment is implied or recommended. Climate ratings are model-assigned labels derived from underlying risk data; they are not property-level assessments and do not constitute insurance or lending guidance. All figures in this report trace to the structured data provided to the Verus-AI model; no external constants, national averages, or recalled figures have been introduced.