Opportunity Zones 2026: Which Tracts Are Actually Good

The question is typically framed as: which Opportunity Zones are worth investing in? The data reframes it: the majority of designated tracts carry scores at or below the median of 51, and the distribution is compressed enough that the difference between a strong and a mediocre tract is often a matter of a few composite points rather than a categorical divide.

That score of 84 is the ceiling of a scale that runs to 100, meaning no designated tract in the scoreable universe reaches even the 85th point on the scale. The bottom five tracts, by contrast, each score 0, carry grade F and High risk designations, and share a modeled five-year price decline of 4.9%. The spread between the top and bottom is wide; the spread within the top tier is narrow.

The mean Verus-AI score across all 6,402 scoreable designated Opportunity Zone tracts is 48.5, and the mean five-year forecast appreciation is 27.78%. Those figures suggest that the tax advantage embedded in the Opportunity Zone designation does not, by itself, translate into above-average return potential.

Opportunity Zones were designated in 2018 on 2010-vintage census tract GEOIDs. Of the 8,765 designated tracts, 6,402 meet that standard, producing a 73.0% match rate. The remaining 2,363 are omitted from the rankings, not fabricated.

Readers should note that the 27% of designated tracts that cannot be scored are not randomly distributed; they skew toward jurisdictions that underwent significant boundary changes in the 2020 census redesign and toward US territories, which means the ranked set likely overrepresents continental states with stable tract geographies.

All forecast intervals are 80% confidence bands, not guarantees. The forecast horizon runs from 2025 through 2029. The history window covers 2014 through 2024. The score distribution shows a 10th percentile of 30, a median of 51, and a 90th percentile of 64, indicating a left-skewed distribution with a long tail of low-scoring tracts and a compressed upper range. A second-round redesignation is forward-looking: governor nominations begin July 2026 and the new map takes effect January 1, 2027.

The ranked table below presents the top 15 and bottom 5 tracts among the 6,402 scoreable designated Opportunity Zone tracts. The top 15 span eight states: California contributes six entries with scores ranging from 78 to 84 and current values ranging from $266,570 to $842,100. Texas contributes three tracts.

All 15 top-ranked tracts carry either a B+ or B grade. The grade breakdown is six B+ and nine B. On the risk dimension, seven carry a Low designation, seven carry Moderate, and one, PA - Tract 2100, carries an Elevated designation. No top-15 tract carries a High risk label, though the single Elevated entry is a meaningful distinction from the Low and Moderate majority. Fourteen of the 15 carry either Low or Moderate risk.

The bottom five tracts, drawn from West Virginia, Texas, and Pennsylvania, each score 0 and carry grade F and High risk designations. All five are grade F, as confirmed by the grade counts in the data. Four of the five show negative income year-over-year figures: WV - Tract 0900 shows an income decline of 38.06%, PA - Tract 9000 shows a decline of 37.31%, TX - Tract 0600 shows a decline of 15.15%, and TX - Tract 0201 shows a decline of 14.02%. The fifth, PA - Tract 0100, shows 0.0% income change. The sharpest income decline among the 20 tracts shown in the ranked tables is the 38.06% figure for WV - Tract 0900.

California's dominance in the top tier is notable but not uniform across the state. Arizona, with 138 scoreable tracts and a state mean of 54.7, and Colorado, with 105 scoreable tracts and a state mean of 57.3, both post above-average state-level mean scores, yet Arizona places only one tract in the top 15 and Colorado none, illustrating that state-level averages and tract-level peaks do not move in lockstep.

The second-ranked momentum leader, AL - Tract 0700, shows income growth of 84.39% with a score of 61.

The divergence between income momentum and composite score suggests that single-variable screening, whether on income growth, forecast appreciation, or current yield, produces a materially different shortlist than a composite approach.

The forecast chart for the leading tract, CA - Tract 3101, shows a value that rose from $238,800 in 2014 to $654,000 in 2024, a decade-long appreciation that precedes the five-year forecast of an additional 35.1%. The 80% confidence band at the 2029 terminal year runs from $781,693 to $998,639, a band width of $216,946. That width is not trivial relative to the point estimate of $883,532 and is consistent with the model's stated 80% interval, meaning one in five outcomes, by construction, falls outside that range. Readers should treat the forecast as a central tendency with meaningful uncertainty, not a precise target.

The score distribution across all 6,402 scoreable designated Opportunity Zone tracts reinforces the compression at the top. The 90th percentile score is 64, and the maximum is 84. That means fewer than 10% of scoreable designated tracts reach a score of 64 or above, and the absolute ceiling is 84. Investors seeking differentiation within the designated universe must look at the tails, not the middle.

Rent-to-price ratios vary substantially across the top 15 tracts and provide a secondary signal that partially offsets or reinforces the appreciation forecast. FL - Tract 2106 carries the highest annual rent-to-price ratio among the 15 top-ranked tracts at 9.5%, paired with a five-year forecast appreciation of 37.01% and a score of 78. TX - Tract 0402 follows at 7.3%, with a forecast of 37.01% and a score of 80. LA - Tract 2200 shows 6.87%, a forecast of 37.01%, and a score of 82. These three tracts combine above-average yield with strong appreciation forecasts, a combination that is less common in the top tier than the raw scores might suggest.

At the other end of the top-15 yield range, CA - Tract 1402 carries a rent-to-price ratio of only 3.05% against a current value of $842,100 and a five-year forecast of 37.01%. CA - Tract 3901 shows 3.97% against a current value of $564,000. These California tracts trade current income for appreciation potential, a profile consistent with higher-priced coastal markets where cap-rate compression is structural rather than cyclical.

Among the bottom five tracts, the yield figures are elevated but carry no compensating appreciation. TX - Tract 0600 shows a rent-to-price ratio of 24.32% against a current value of $48,000 and a five-year forecast decline of 4.9%. WV - Tract 0900 shows 11.19% against a current value of $72,294 and the same 4.9% decline forecast. High gross yields in deeply distressed tracts are a well-documented artifact of low asset prices rather than strong rental demand, and the model's negative appreciation forecasts for all five bottom tracts are consistent with that interpretation. Yield alone, without a view on value trajectory, is an incomplete signal in the Opportunity Zone context.

The 27% of designated tracts that cannot be scored represent a structural gap in the analysis. Tracts in US territories, 130 in total, are entirely absent from the model.

The 80% confidence bands widen materially over the five-year horizon; for CA - Tract 3101, the terminal band width reaches $216,946 around a point estimate of $883,532. Outcomes outside that band are possible by construction. The model does not incorporate forward-looking policy changes, zoning amendments, or infrastructure investment decisions that may affect individual tracts.

Income year-over-year figures, particularly the extreme readings in the momentum leaders table, should be interpreted with caution. A 163.39% income gain for NY - Tract 9500 in a single year is more likely to reflect base-period distortion, survey sampling volatility, or a one-time event than a durable structural shift. The model's composite score of 61 for that tract, against a momentum rank of first among the 6,402 scoreable designated Opportunity Zone tracts, reflects the model's weighting of multiple factors rather than any single variable.

The Opportunity Zone tax benefit is time-sensitive and depends on investor-specific holding periods, basis step-ups, and tax positions that the Verus-AI model does not incorporate. A tract that scores well on fundamentals may or may not be the optimal vehicle for a given investor's tax situation, and a tract that scores poorly on fundamentals does not become attractive solely because of the designation.