Where People Are Actually Moving in 2026

Population movement at the census-tract level in 2026 does not resolve neatly into a single migration story. Across the 7,233 scoreable tracts spanning 13 major U.S. metros, the fastest-growing tract, Tract 0005 in San Antonio, recorded an 80.58% year-over-year population gain, yet carries a Verus-AI score of only 26 and a five-year price forecast of just 7.67%. That combination is the central tension this analysis addresses: rapid headcount growth and housing market strength are not the same signal, and conflating them produces systematically misleading conclusions about where residential value is actually accruing.

The ranked tables below present 15 population gainers and 15 population losers drawn from the same 13-metro universe. Phoenix leads the 13 curated launch metros on both mean Verus-AI score (64.02) and mean five-year forecast (35.32%), while Houston trails with a mean score of 51.18 and a mean forecast of 28.59%. The gap between those two metros illustrates how differently migration-receiving markets can be positioned even when both are absorbing net inflows.

The Verus-AI forecast is built on a history window spanning 2014 through 2024 and projects forward across a five-year horizon covering 2025 through 2029. Scores are expressed on a 0-to-100 scale. The confidence bands reported throughout this analysis are 80% intervals, they are not guarantees, and the terminal band for the leading tract alone spans $87,981, a figure that underscores how wide the range of plausible outcomes can be even for a single tract over five years.

Coverage extends to 82,179 scoreable U.S. census tracts across 3,234 counties, representing 84.09% of all U.S. tracts. The 13 curated launch metros account for 7,233 of those tracts. Population rankings on this page are drawn exclusively from that 7,233-tract named-metro universe; readers should not generalize the ranked extremes to the full 82,179-tract national scope without consulting the broader dataset. The forecast distribution across the 82,179 scoreable U.S. census tracts shows a 10th-percentile forecast of 15.7% and a 50th-percentile forecast of 30.48%, with both the 75th and 90th percentiles hitting the model's 37.01% cap, a cap that 23,955 tracts have reached, indicating that the upper tail of the forecast distribution is compressed by design rather than by data.

Year-over-year population and income figures are derived from the same 2014-to-2024 history window. Where income change is reported as 0.0%, that reflects a data condition in the underlying source rather than a confirmed flat reading; those tracts should be interpreted with additional caution. Verus-AI scores incorporate price history, income trends, and population dynamics simultaneously, which is why a tract can show strong population growth alongside a low score, the model is weighting the full signal set, not population alone.

The ranked table below lists the 15 fastest-growing and 15 fastest-shrinking tracts within the 7,233 scoreable tracts across 13 major U.S. metros. The second-fastest gainer among the 15 ranked population-gaining tracts is Tract 4002 in Dallas-Fort Worth, at 56.62%, a figure accompanied by a -16.91% income change and a Verus-AI score of 55, a pairing that illustrates how population inflow can coincide with household income compression rather than expansion.

Three Las Vegas tracts appear in the top 10 gainers: Tract 5720 (50.24% population growth, score 77), Tract 3663 (40.56%, score 66), and Tract 5442 (32.89%, score 68). Tract 5720 is notable because it combines the third-highest population growth rate among the 15 ranked gainers with a score of 77 and a forecast of 36.36%, a materially different profile from the top-ranked gainer, which scores 26 and forecasts only 7.67%. That divergence within the same ranking is precisely the kind of within-list dispersion that aggregate metro-level statistics obscure.

On the losers side, the steepest population decline among the 15 ranked population-losing tracts belongs to Lakewood Heights in Atlanta, at -24.17%. Yet Lakewood Heights carries a Verus-AI score of 55 and a five-year forecast of 37.01%, reaching the model's cap. The contrast between those two tracts is a useful reminder that the direction of population change does not determine the direction of price forecasts.

The most counter-intuitive pattern within the 15 ranked population-gaining tracts is that population growth, taken alone, is a poor proxy for housing market strength at the tract level. Tract 0005 in San Antonio leads all 15 ranked gainers in population growth at 80.58% yet scores 26, below the 10th percentile of the score distribution across the 82,179 scoreable U.S. census tracts, which sits at 37.0. Its five-year forecast of 7.67% sits far below the national 10th-percentile forecast of 15.7%. By contrast, Leander in Austin shows a more moderate 33.22% population gain alongside a score of 70 and a forecast of 37.01%, reaching the cap. The data suggests that the quality of the income base accompanying population growth matters considerably more than the growth rate itself.

Phoenix stands out among the 13 curated launch metros as the metro where top-tier tracts are most consistently positioned. A fourth top tract, Tract 9500, scores 85 as well, with a forecast of 36.88%. Phoenix's mean Verus-AI score of 64.02 is the highest among the 13 curated launch metros, and its mean five-year forecast of 35.32% is similarly the highest in that group. The metro's 998 scoreable tracts show a forecast distribution where even the 10th percentile reaches 31.58%, indicating that the floor of the Phoenix distribution is elevated relative to peers.

Houston presents the sharpest contrast among the 13 curated launch metros. With 1,359 scoreable tracts, the second-largest count in the dataset after Dallas-Fort Worth's 1,481, Houston's mean score of 51.18 and mean forecast of 28.59% trail every other metro in the group. The 10th-percentile forecast for Houston sits at 14.0%, the lowest 10th-percentile reading among the 13 curated launch metros, and the median forecast of 32.21% falls well short of the 37.01% cap that the median tract reaches in Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa, and several other metros. Houston's breadth means its mean figures are pulled down by a long tail of lower-scoring tracts, though the top of its distribution, led by Tract 5401 and Tract 5503, both scoring 78, remains competitive with mid-tier tracts in higher-scoring metros.

Income dynamics deserve particular attention when reading the population-loser list. Three of the 15 ranked population-losing tracts show income declines exceeding 20%: Brays Oaks in Houston at -31.01%, Dunwoody in Atlanta at -28.37%, and Vine City in Atlanta at -27.07%. All three also carry Verus-AI scores below 55.

The Verus-AI dataset does not include rental yield or capitalization rate figures directly, so no rental income claims can be made from this data.

Within the 15 ranked population gainers, several tracts combine sub-$300,000 current values with scores above 50. Tract 4002 in Dallas-Fort Worth shows a current value of $248,878 and a score of 55; Round Rock in Austin shows $267,100 and a score of 82; Tract 5600 in Dallas-Fort Worth shows $206,374 and a score of 81. Those pairings, relatively accessible price points alongside mid-to-high scores, are the combinations a yield-oriented reader would want to cross-reference against local rental market data that falls outside the scope of this model.

On the loser side, the Verus-AI scores for the 15 ranked population-losing tracts range from 28 to 71, and their forecasts range from 15.8% to 37.01%, a wide spread that reflects the model's uncertainty about the trajectory of income-compressed tracts. Springfield in Jacksonville carries a current value of $124,600 and a score of 44; Westchase in Houston shows $123,239 and a score of 47. Low absolute values in tracts with declining populations and compressed incomes do not automatically imply yield opportunity; the score and forecast data suggest the model views those tracts with meaningful skepticism.

All forecasts on this page are model-derived estimates covering the 2025-to-2029 window and carry 80% confidence intervals, not certainties. The terminal 80% band for the leading tract, Tract 0005 in San Antonio, spans $87,981 between its lower bound of $482,735 and upper bound of $570,716. That width, on a tract with a current value of $487,500, illustrates that even a five-year point estimate can be overwhelmed by the range of plausible outcomes. Readers should treat the forecast chart as a probability distribution, not a price target.

Population figures are year-over-year point estimates and can reflect boundary changes, reclassifications, or data revisions rather than genuine household migration. Tracts reporting 0.0% income change, including Tract 0005, Tract 7201 in Phoenix, Tampa Heights, Tract 1903 in Dallas-Fort Worth, Tract 3301 in Phoenix, Tract 0900 in Phoenix, Lakewood Heights, Stonecrest, and Springfield, should be interpreted with additional caution, as that figure likely reflects a data condition rather than a confirmed flat income reading. The Verus-AI model flags these tracts but cannot resolve the underlying data gap.

The 37.01% forecast cap applies to 23,955 tracts across the 82,179 scoreable U.S. census tracts. When a tract's forecast reads exactly 37.01%, that indicates the model's upper bound has been reached, not that the model predicts precisely that figure. Comparisons between capped and uncapped tracts should account for this asymmetry. Finally, climate, demographic, and macroeconomic conditions that fall outside the 2014-to-2024 history window are not captured in the model; the forecast horizon does not extend beyond 2029, and no projections beyond that date appear anywhere in this analysis.