Best Climate-Resilient Real Estate Markets in 2026

The search for climate-resilient real estate in 2026 is, at its core, a two-dimensional screening problem: identifying tracts where the Verus-AI score signals durable appreciation potential and where the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) independently confirms low physical hazard exposure. Across the 7,233 scoreable tracts in the curated launch metros, 3,915 carry a low FEMA NRI rating, either Very Low or Relatively Low. The climate-resilient quadrant discussed throughout this page represents the intersection of that low-risk population with the upper tier of Verus-AI scores, and the ranked table below presents the 15 tracts that clear both thresholds simultaneously.

The distribution of quadrant entries across metros is uneven in ways that carry analytical weight. That concentration in Sun Belt interior markets is not accidental: metros with limited hurricane exposure and relatively contained wildfire footprints within their urban cores tend to produce more tracts that clear the low-risk screen, even when individual hazard components, particularly heat wave expected annual loss (EAL) in Phoenix and Las Vegas, are elevated in absolute terms.

Composite Verus-AI scores across the 15 quadrant entries range from 80.80 to 85.29, all graded either A- or B+. Fourteen of the 15 entries carry a five-year forecast at the model cap of 37.01%; the exception is Las Vegas Tract 5322, which forecasts 35.57%. The prevalence of cap-bound forecasts in the quadrant is a structural feature of the model's design, the cap is set at 37.01% across the 82,179 scoreable U.S. census tracts, and should not be read as implying that all 14 cap-bound tracts are expected to appreciate at identical rates in practice; the cap reflects a ceiling on model output, not a point estimate of realized returns.

The FEMA NRI overlay is presented as a separate, independent input alongside the Verus-AI score and forecast. The forecast trains on price history spanning 2014 through 2024, a window that includes multiple flood seasons, wildfire years, and heat events across the covered metros. The page does not claim that climate risk has not been priced in; it presents the NRI data so that readers can form their own view on that question.

The NRI version used here is 1.20.0, published by FEMA in December 2025, and it matches 100% of the 7,233 named-metro tracts with a rated NRI row. That complete match rate is analytically useful: there are no gaps in the overlay caused by unrated tracts, and the low-risk count of 3,915 across the curated launch metros is a clean denominator for any share calculation. Tracts that FEMA rates Insufficient Data are not treated as low risk in this analysis, a conservative convention that avoids misclassifying data-sparse tracts as safe.

A practical interpretive caution applies at the sub-tract level. The NRI is a tract-level aggregate; parcel-level flood zone status requires a site-specific FEMA flood map lookup. Similarly, the NRI expected annual loss figures are backward-looking historical hazard indicators derived from historical loss data, not forward projections to 2050 or beyond, and hurricane EAL is blank for many interior tracts, that blank is treated as not applicable, not as zero risk.

The ranked table below orders the 15 quadrant entries by composite Verus-AI score, descending. Phoenix Tract 2219 leads the quadrant among the 3,915 named-metro tracts that carry a low FEMA NRI rating (Very Low or Relatively Low), with a composite score of 85.29, a Verus-AI score of 85, and a grade of A-. Its current value of $350,500 is the entry point for the quadrant's leading tract, and the forecast chart for Tract 2219 shows an observed price series running from $136,000 in 2014 to $350,500 in 2024, with the 80% confidence interval widening from a band width of $36,956 at the 2025 horizon to $106,481 at the 2029 terminal year, a widening that is characteristic of multi-year price forecasts and should be read as uncertainty expanding over time, not as a signal of deteriorating fundamentals.

Nashville Tract 1900 ranks second in the quadrant among the 3,915 named-metro tracts that carry a low FEMA NRI rating, with a composite score of 85.07 and a current value of $453,455, the highest entry price in the top three quadrant positions. Its NRI overall risk score of 40.12 places it in the Relatively Low band, though its risk_grade is listed as Moderate, a reminder that the Verus-AI risk grade and the FEMA NRI rating are distinct assessments drawing on different inputs. Austin's Tanglewood Forest ranks third, with a composite score of 84.80 and a current value of $411,000.

Austin places four tracts in the quadrant, Tanglewood Forest (composite score 84.80), Anderson Mill (82.78), Round Rock (81.62), and Galindo (81.15), tying it with Phoenix for the most-represented metro in the quadrant among the 15 quadrant entries, at four tracts each. The four Austin entries span a current-value range from $267,100 (Round Rock) to $477,000 (Galindo), illustrating that the quadrant is not confined to a single price tier.

Dallas-Fort Worth contributes two quadrant entries, Tract 1615 and Tract 5600, both rated Relatively Low by FEMA NRI, with current values of $297,400 and $206,374 respectively. Among the 15 quadrant entries, Tract 5600 carries the lowest current value at $206,374. Orlando's Tract 6728 rounds out the quadrant as the sole Florida representative, with a composite score of 82.04 and a current value of $389,300.

Galindo (Austin) illustrates this clearly: its flood EAL of $1,058,242 is the largest flood component among the 15 quadrant entries, yet its overall NRI score of 50.86 still falls within the Relatively Low band. The overall NRI score aggregates across multiple hazard types, and a high flood EAL can be offset by low scores on other hazards, wildfire, hurricane, and heat wave, to produce a composite that clears the low-risk threshold.

Heat wave EAL is the defining hazard signature for Phoenix and Las Vegas entries in the quadrant. Phoenix Tract 2219 carries a heat wave EAL of $667,211, which is the dominant component of its overall EAL of $1,076,279. Phoenix Tract 0111 shows a heat wave EAL of $852,326 out of a total EAL of $1,242,263. Las Vegas Tract 3214 records a heat wave EAL of $227,575, and Tract 2829 records $467,387. These figures are consistent with the Phoenix metro mean heat wave EAL of $957,770 and the Las Vegas metro mean heat wave EAL of $551,247, both the highest heat wave EAL metro means among the 13 curated launch metros, and they underscore that low overall NRI ratings in these metros coexist with material heat exposure at the tract level.

The Nashville metro mean flood EAL of $935,266 is among the higher flood means across the 13 curated launch metros, so Tract 1900's flood EAL, while large in absolute terms, is not anomalous relative to its metro peer group.

Orlando Tract 6728 is the only quadrant entry with a material hurricane EAL, recorded at $241,878 among the 15 quadrant entries. Its flood EAL of $566,756 is also among the higher flood figures in the quadrant. That combination, hurricane and flood exposure both present, makes Orlando's inclusion in the low-risk quadrant among the 15 quadrant entries somewhat notable; the overall NRI score of 31.10 reflects offsetting low scores on wildfire ($2,745) and heat wave ($19,155), which pull the composite into the Relatively Low band despite the Florida coastal hazard profile. Readers evaluating Tract 6728 specifically should weight the hurricane and flood components carefully rather than relying solely on the composite rating.

Among the two Austin tracts rated Very Low by FEMA NRI within the quadrant, Anderson Mill carries an NRI score of 4.26 and Round Rock carries an NRI score of 13.77, the lowest and third-lowest NRI scores among the 15 quadrant entries. Anderson Mill's overall EAL of $577,025 and Round Rock's overall EAL of $711,634 are also among the lower total EAL figures in the quadrant, suggesting that the Very Low rating reflects genuine multi-hazard attenuation rather than a single offsetting component. By contrast, Las Vegas Tract 5322 carries a Very Low NRI score of 8.13, the second-lowest NRI score among the 15 quadrant entries, but a current value of $635,600, the highest current value among the 15 quadrant entries, and a five-year forecast of 35.57%, the only quadrant entry that does not reach the model cap.

The Verus-AI score is computed on a scale of 0 to 100 and ranks tracts across the curated launch metros. The five-year forecast window covers 2025 through 2029, trained on observed price history from 2014 through 2024. The model caps the five-year forecast at 37.01%; across the 82,179 scoreable U.S. census tracts, 23,955 tracts reach that cap, roughly 29% of the scoreable universe. Confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning that under the model's assumptions, the realized outcome is expected to fall within the band 80% of the time; they are not guarantees, and outcomes outside the band are plausible.

The FEMA NRI data used here is version 1.20.0, dated December 2025. NRI expected annual loss figures are backward-looking estimates derived from historical hazard and loss data; they are not scenario projections for future climate states. The NRI is a tract-level aggregate, and within any given tract there will be parcels with materially different flood zone designations.

Coverage across the curated launch metros is complete: all 7,233 named-metro tracts match to a rated NRI row, yielding a match rate of 100%. The 13 curated launch metros span 7,233 scoreable tracts in total, of which 3,915 carry a low NRI rating. Phoenix's mean five-year forecast of 35.32% and Nashville's mean of 34.79% are the two highest mean forecasts among the 13 curated launch metros, which partly explains why those metros contribute disproportionately to the upper end of the quadrant score distribution.

Readers should note that the ranking in the quadrant table is ordered by Verus-AI score, never by forecast magnitude or by climate risk rating. Two tracts with identical Verus-AI scores but different NRI ratings would rank identically in the score-ordered table; the NRI column is an independent overlay, not a tiebreaker. The forecast is not stated net of climate risk, and the analysis does not claim that climate risk has been fully priced into observed values. The appropriate use of this page is as a starting point for further due diligence, not as a substitute for it.