Austin Real Estate Market 2026

As of May 2026, the Austin metro's median sale price on closed transactions stands at $471,693, a year-over-year gain of just 1.1%.

Supply conditions reinforce that reading. Active inventory across the three-county footprint tracked here totals 14,244 homes. New listings filed in May 2026 reached 4,549 against 2,797 closed sales, producing 5.1 months of supply, a level that conventionally sits at the boundary between balanced and buyer-favorable conditions. The median days on market of 58 and a sale-to-list ratio of 0.9767 are consistent with that interpretation: buyers are, on average, transacting at a modest discount to asking price rather than above it. The median price per square foot of $235 provides a useful cross-check for valuation work, though readers should note that this figure reflects the closed-sale mix and may not be directly comparable across submarket types.

Taken together, the current-market data describes a metro that has absorbed a significant inventory build without a sharp price correction, but also without meaningful price recovery. The 1.1% year-over-year gain is, in real terms, likely negative after inflation, a nuance worth holding alongside the longer-horizon forecast discussion that follows.

The population-weighted median owner-estimated home value across the 465 scored Austin tracts is $454,400. That figure, derived from American Community Survey responses, differs from the observed median sale price of $471,693 in the current-market snapshot; the two series measure different things and should not be conflated. The scored universe spans 465 of the 654 constituent tracts across the three-county footprint, 71.1% of the total, with 189 tracts lacking sufficient transaction history to score.

The leading tract in the Verus-AI ranking, Tanglewood Forest (tract 48453002423), illustrates the breadth of the appreciation cycle well. The forecast chart for this tract shows observed values rising from $147,600 in 2014 to $411,000 in 2024, a gain of roughly $263,400 over the history window.

Across the ranked tables, current values span a wide range, from $267,100 for Round Rock (tract 48491021502) to $734,402 for Shady Hollow (tract 48453033300) among the top 15 tracts. Among the bottom five, the dispersion is even more striking: San Marcos (tract 48209010309) carries a current value of $12,440, while Allandale (tract 48453032300) is recorded at $238,000. Values at the low end of the bottom five reflect structural characteristics, very low price points, atypically high rent-to-price ratios, that distinguish them from the broader market and warrant separate analytical treatment rather than simple comparison to metro medians.

The Verus-AI score ranges from 0 to 100 across the scored universe. Among all 465 scored Austin tracts, the score distribution shows a 10th percentile of 46, a median of 61, and a 90th percentile of 72, with a mean of 59.91. The top 15 tracts in the ranked table below carry scores between 78 and 85, placing each well above the 90th percentile of the scored universe. Tanglewood Forest leads with a score of 85 and an A- grade; the remaining 14 top-ranked tracts carry grades of B+ or B.

A notable feature of the top 15 is the uniformity of risk designation. All 15 tracts in the top-ranked set carry either a Low or Moderate risk grade, 12 are rated Low and 3 are rated Moderate. The three Moderate-risk tracts are Austin - Tract 2500 (48453042500), Buda (48209010915), and Cedar Park (48491020354). No top-ranked tract carries an Elevated or High risk designation, which is a meaningful structural distinction from the bottom of the distribution.

Geographically, the top-ranked tracts are distributed across multiple counties and community types. Suburban and exurban areas, Hutto, Round Rock, Taylor, Leander, Cedar Park, Brushy Creek, Buda, and Anderson Mill, appear alongside closer-in Austin tracts such as Tanglewood Forest, Galindo, Windsor Park, and Shady Hollow.

The contrast at the bottom of the distribution is sharp. All five of the lowest-ranked tracts in the ranked set carry grade F designations, and four of the five carry High risk grades; the fifth, Pflugerville (tract 48453044800), carries an Elevated risk grade. Four of the five bottom tracts show five-year forecast declines of -4.9%, and the highest-scoring of the five, Austin - Tract 6300 (48453036300) and Austin - Tract 0306 (48209010306), each score only 15. The rent-to-price annual yield for San Marcos (tract 48209010309) is recorded at 107.94%, a figure that reflects the anomalously low current value of $12,440 rather than a conventionally investable yield, and should be interpreted with that context in mind.

West Campus (tract 48453000606) shows a year-over-year income gain of 94.14%, by far the largest in the momentum leaders set, though its Verus-AI score of 51 and five-year forecast of 17.37% suggest the model is discounting that figure, likely because a single-year income spike in a high-student-population tract carries less predictive weight than sustained household income growth in a more stable demographic base.

Montopolis (tract 48453002327) shows income growth of 74.39% with a score of 48 and a five-year forecast of 8.86%, a similar pattern: strong income momentum that the model treats cautiously given other tract characteristics. The more analytically interesting cases may be the tracts where high income growth coincides with high scores and strong forecasts. Leander (tract 48491020340) shows income growth of 25.83% alongside a score of 70 and a 37.01% five-year forecast. Govalle (tract 48453002110) shows income growth of 16.69% with a score of 70 and a 37.01% five-year forecast. Austin - Tract 1602 (48491021602) shows income growth of 15.21% with a score of 67 and a 37.01% five-year forecast.

Among the 20 tracts in the ranked tables, the income picture is more restrained at the bottom. San Marcos (tract 48209010309) and Allandale (tract 48453032300) each show 0.0% year-over-year income growth, the lowest figures among the 20 tracts shown in the ranked tables. Pflugerville (tract 48453044800) shows 0.81% income growth. These near-zero readings, combined with negative or minimal price forecasts, indicate that the demand-side fundamentals supporting value appreciation are absent in these tracts. Notably, Austin - Tract 0306 (48209010306) appears in both the bottom five and the momentum leaders list, with income growth of 16.93%; the model's score of 15 indicates that income momentum alone is insufficient to offset the other structural weaknesses the model identifies in that tract.

Across all 465 scored Austin tracts, the sharpest income decline belongs to tract 48453034400, at -33.89%. The next four steepest declines in the scored universe range from -33.03% to -28.58%. None of these tracts appear in the top or bottom ranked tables, underscoring that the ranked set of 20 does not capture the full range of demographic stress present across the scored universe.

The Verus-AI five-year forecast covers the 2025-to-2029 window and is expressed as a cumulative percentage change from the current observed value. Across all 465 scored Austin tracts, the mean five-year forecast is 33.18%. The forecast distribution is notably compressed at the upper end: the 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles all converge at or near 37.01%, while the 10th percentile sits at 23.45%.

The leading tract, Tanglewood Forest (tract 48453002423), carries a 37.01% five-year forecast, implying a model-derived terminal value of $563,106 by 2029 from a current value of $411,000. The forecast chart for this tract shows the 80% confidence interval widening from a band of roughly $60,229 in the first forecast year to $173,800 at the 2029 terminal year, with a lower bound of $482,872 and an upper bound of $656,672. Readers should treat these as 80% intervals, not guarantees, meaning the model assigns a 20% probability to outcomes outside that range in either direction.

Among the top 15 tracts, 13 carry the 37.01% five-year forecast. Windsor Park (tract 48453002104) forecasts 34.11%, and Leander (tract 48491020337) forecasts 36.86%, both below the cluster but still well above the metro mean of 33.18%. In dollar terms, the forecast appreciation varies considerably by current value: Shady Hollow (tract 48453033300), with a current value of $734,402, forecasts a terminal value of $1,006,195, while Round Rock (tract 48491021502), with a current value of $267,100, forecasts a terminal value of $365,950. The absolute dollar gain differs substantially even when the percentage forecast is identical.

At the bottom of the distribution, four of the five lowest-ranked tracts, San Marcos (48209010309), Pflugerville (48453044800), Austin - Tract 6300 (48453036300), and Austin - Tract 0306 (48209010306), each carry a -4.9% five-year forecast, implying cumulative value erosion over the forecast window. Allandale (tract 48453032300) forecasts a modest 4.57% gain, but from a current value of $238,000 and with a score of 13, the model's overall assessment remains deeply negative. The divergence between the top and bottom of the ranked set, a spread of more than 40 percentage points in five-year forecast between the leading tracts and the weakest, reflects genuine structural heterogeneity across the Austin metro rather than a uniformly rising tide.

The Verus-AI score is scaled from 0 to 100 and is derived from a model trained on the 2014-to-2024 history window. Forecasts cover the 2025-to-2029 period. The scored universe for the Austin metro encompasses 465 tracts across three counties (FIPS codes 48453, 48491, and 48209), representing 71.1% of the 654 constituent tracts. The remaining 189 tracts lack sufficient transaction history to generate a score and are excluded from all ranked tables and distribution statistics.

Home value estimates used as inputs to the model are ACS owner-estimated median values, not observed sale prices. The current-market snapshot, median sale price of $471,693, active inventory of 14,244, months of supply of 5.1, and related metrics, is drawn from third-party observed sale data as of May 2026 and is explicitly not an input to the Verus-AI score or forecast. Readers should be careful not to conflate the two series when interpreting tract-level forecasts alongside metro-level market conditions.

Confidence intervals on the five-year forecast are 80% intervals, meaning the model assigns a 20% probability to outcomes outside the stated range. The terminal-year band for the leading tract spans $173,800 between the lower bound of $482,872 and the upper bound of $656,672, illustrating that forecast uncertainty compounds materially over a five-year horizon. Income growth figures are year-over-year changes in ACS median household income estimates and are subject to survey sampling error, particularly in smaller tracts. Rent-to-price annual yield is unavailable for Austin - Tract 6300 (48453036300) and should not be imputed. Climate, demographic, and forecast figures are backward- or model-derived estimates; the analysis does not project beyond the 2029 horizon present in the data.