Round Rock Real Estate (Austin, 2026)

Round Rock is a suburb-city within the Austin metro, comprising 23 census tracts and a total population of 98,280. The population-weighted median home value sits at $336,988, and the Verus-AI model assigns a mean score of 62.7 across all 23 scored tracts, with a median score of 62.0. Those two figures tracking closely suggests the score distribution is roughly symmetric rather than skewed by a handful of outliers at either extreme, though the range from 36 to 82 indicates meaningful internal dispersion.

The mean five-year forecast of 34.81% is modestly below the modal forecast of 37.01%, a compression that reflects the weight of a small number of lower-scoring tracts pulling the city-wide average downward. In practical terms, the majority of Round Rock tracts share a common forecast ceiling, and differentiation among them is driven primarily by income momentum, risk grade, and current valuation rather than by divergent price-appreciation assumptions.

Income momentum is the sharpest source of internal differentiation among the 23 tracts shown in the ranked table. The sharpest income decline among the 23 tracts shown in the ranked table belongs to tract 48491021503, at -18.52% year-over-year, a reading that stands well apart from the next-steepest declines in the scored universe. At the other end, tract 48491021511 shows a 12.01% year-over-year income gain and tract 48491020512 shows 11.27%, both carrying C+ grades, a reminder that strong income momentum alone does not guarantee a high composite score when risk and valuation factors weigh against a tract.

The grade distribution across all 23 Round Rock tracts is broad, spanning B+ at the top to F at the bottom, with the plurality of tracts, eight, earning C- grades. One tract earns a B+ and one earns an F, indicating that the extremes are genuinely exceptional within the 23 tracts shown in the ranked table rather than common outcomes. The ranked table below presents the full scoring detail; the discussion here focuses on the structural patterns that the table alone does not surface.

Tract 48491021502 leads the 23 tracts shown in the ranked table with a Verus-AI score of 82 and a B+ grade. Its current value of $267,100 is notably below the population-weighted median of $336,988, yet it carries the highest score in the set, a combination that suggests the model is rewarding income momentum (9.08% year-over-year) and a Low risk designation rather than price level per se. The five-year forecast of 37.01% implies a terminal value of $365,950 by 2029. The forecast chart for this leading tract illustrates the widening 80% confidence band: the terminal lower bound is $319,179 and the upper bound is $419,575, a band width of $100,396 that reflects the inherent uncertainty of a five-year horizon.

Their current values differ substantially: $625,900, $387,891, and $333,400, respectively. Tract 48491020706 is notable for a median household income of $206,324, the highest among the three, alongside a rent-to-price ratio of only 4.66% annually, the lowest among the top five, suggesting that rental yield is not the primary investment thesis for that tract. Tract 48491020707 carries a Moderate risk grade, the only one among the top four tracts not rated Low, a distinction worth noting given that the other three top-ranked tracts all hold Low risk designations.

The income trend column is the most informative differentiator within this cohort among the 23 tracts shown in the ranked table: four of the five bottom tracts, 48491020701, 48491021516, 48491020710, and 48491020713, carry negative year-over-year income readings. Tract 48491020701 is the sole F-grade tract, with a Verus-AI score of 36 and a five-year forecast of only 10.56% at a CAGR of 2.03%, both figures standing well below every other tract in the 23 tracts shown in the ranked table. Its risk grade is paradoxically Low, which illustrates that a low risk designation reflects the model's assessment of volatility and downside exposure rather than an endorsement of return potential. The bottom-five cohort is not uniform in grade: the five tracts span F, D, D+, and two C- designations, and their risk grades range from Low to High.

The Verus-AI model identifies four comparable neighborhoods for Round Rock, selected on structural similarity across demographic, economic, and housing-market dimensions. The comparables table below lists them in descending similarity order: Seffner in the Tampa metro at 98.4% similarity, Tucker in the Atlanta metro at 98.0%, Selma in the San Antonio metro at 96.9%, and Taylor in the Austin metro at 96.8%.

Round Rock's mean Verus-AI score of 62.7 sits below all four comparables, which score 77, 75, 74, and 81, respectively. That gap is worth examining carefully. The comparables represent single representative tracts, while Round Rock's mean aggregates 23 tracts with considerable internal dispersion, a score of 62.7 reflects the drag of the lower-scoring tracts rather than a uniform underperformance. The leading tract in Round Rock, at 82, actually exceeds all four comparables, and the 75th-percentile score of 69.0 is within a few points of the Selma and Tucker comparables.

The Taylor comparable, being within the same Austin metro at 96.8% similarity and a score of 81, is a particularly direct structural reference point. Its current value of $275,000 is close to the leading Round Rock tract's current value of $267,100, which reinforces the view that the top end of Round Rock's tract distribution is operating in a similar price regime to Taylor. The Seffner comparable, at 98.4% similarity and a score of 77, carries a current value of $309,000, above the leading Round Rock tract but below the population-weighted median of $336,988. Tucker, at $263,644, and Selma, at $258,800, both sit below the leading Round Rock tract's current value, suggesting that Round Rock's higher-scoring tracts are not underpriced relative to structurally similar markets.

Fourteen tracts hold a Very Low climate rating and nine hold a Relatively Low rating; no tract in the scored set carries a higher-risk climate designation. The modal climate rating is Very Low. This concentration is notable in the context of the broader Texas market, where climate risk, particularly heat and flood exposure, is a growing consideration in long-horizon underwriting.

The absence of OZ overlays means that tax-advantaged capital-gains deferral strategies tied to Qualified Opportunity Fund investment are not applicable within this market. For institutional allocators whose mandate includes OZ-eligible assets, Round Rock does not qualify under current designations. For other investors, the absence of OZ status has no direct bearing on the Verus-AI score or the price-appreciation forecast.

The combination of a uniformly favorable climate profile and zero OZ designations positions Round Rock as a relatively clean underwriting environment from an overlay perspective. Climate risk does not appear to be a material differentiating factor among tracts within this market; the score dispersion documented in the ranked table is driven by income, valuation, and risk-grade variables rather than by climate exposure differences.

The Verus-AI score is a composite index scaled from 0 to 100, drawing on a history window of 2014 through 2024. The confidence bands shown in the forecast chart are 80% intervals, meaning the model estimates an 80% probability that realized values will fall within the displayed range. They are not guarantees, and realized outcomes outside the bands are consistent with the model's own uncertainty characterization.

The leading tract's observed value series illustrates the history the model is trained on: from $115,100 in 2014 to $267,100 in 2024, a decade of appreciation that includes both the post-2020 acceleration and the earlier, more gradual growth phase. The band widths widen from $34,814 at the 2025 forecast year to $100,396 at the 2029 terminal year, a pattern that is structurally expected, uncertainty compounds over time, and should be read as a feature of honest probabilistic forecasting rather than a limitation unique to this market.

Income figures are year-over-year percentage changes derived from the model's data inputs and should be interpreted as directional signals rather than precise point estimates. The -18.52% reading for tract 48491021503, the sharpest income decline among all 23 scored Round Rock tracts, is large enough to warrant independent verification before it is used as a primary input to any investment decision. Similarly, the positive income readings above 10% for tracts 48491021511 and 48491020512 may reflect base-period effects or survey-sample volatility rather than durable income growth. The Verus-AI score incorporates these signals within a broader composite, which is why high income momentum does not automatically translate to a high grade when other factors are unfavorable.

Rent-to-price ratios are expressed as annual percentages and are model-derived estimates; they do not account for vacancy, management costs, capital expenditure, or financing. The range across the 23 ranked tracts runs from 4.66% for tract 48491020706 to 9.01% for tract 48491021518, a spread that reflects differences in current valuation and estimated rental income rather than net yield after expenses. Readers should treat these figures as gross yield proxies and apply their own expense assumptions before drawing conclusions about net cash-flow potential.