Georgetown Real Estate (Austin, 2026)

Georgetown, a suburb-city within the Austin metro, encompasses 15 census tracts and a total population of 82,466. The population-weighted median home value across those tracts stands at $445,200, a figure that sits meaningfully above the current value of the leading tract, 48491021404, at $364,600, indicating that higher-valued tracts carry enough population weight to pull the aggregate upward. That compression at the upper end of the distribution reflects the fact that a large share of tracts share an identical model output, with the outlier being tract 48491020123, which carries a materially lower five-year forecast of 24.12%.

The mean Verus-AI score of 62.53 and median of 61.0 are close together, which ordinarily signals a compact distribution, but the score distribution table tells a more nuanced story. The 10th-to-90th percentile range spans only 57.4 to 68.8 across the 15 scored Georgetown tracts, a spread of roughly 11 points, yet the minimum score of 49 and maximum of 74 reveal that the tails extend well beyond that interquartile band. The single D-grade tract and the two B- tracts at the top are genuine outliers within this otherwise compressed field. No tract earns a grade above B- among the 15 tracts shown in the ranked table, which is itself a notable ceiling for a suburb-city that has attracted considerable residential development attention in recent years.

Income dynamics across Georgetown's tracts are mixed and warrant careful reading. Among the 15 tracts shown in the ranked table, the sharpest year-over-year income decline belongs to tract 48491020113 at -8.42%; the same figure is confirmed as the sharpest decline across all 15 scored Georgetown tracts. Meanwhile, the strongest income growth in the ranked set belongs to tract 48491020821 at 6.62%, followed closely by tract 48491021404 at 6.54%.

The ranked table below presents all 15 Georgetown tracts sorted by Verus-AI score. The grade distribution across those 15 tracts is: two B-, four C+, six C, two C-, and one D. The absence of any A-range or B+ grade is consistent with a market where fundamental drivers, income growth, rent yield, and price appreciation, are present but not uniformly strong. The six C-grade tracts form the modal cluster, and the score distribution confirms this: the median score of 61.0 falls squarely in C territory on the Verus-AI scale.

Tract 48491021404 leads the 15 tracts shown in the ranked table with a Verus-AI score of 74 and a B- grade. Its current value of $364,600 is among the lower values in the set, tract 48491020121, for instance, carries a current value of $662,800, yet it posts the second-highest income year-over-year growth at 6.54% and a rent-to-price annual yield of 7.79%, the highest yield among all tracts in the ranked table for which data is available. The forecast chart for this leading tract shows observed values rising from $164,700 in 2014 to $364,600 in 2024, with the Verus-AI model projecting a path to $499,534 by 2029. The 80% confidence interval at the terminal year spans $408,495 to $610,862, a band width of $202,367 that widens materially as the horizon extends, a pattern visible in the band-width progression from $69,970 in 2025 to $202,367 in 2029. Readers should treat the outer bounds as illustrative of uncertainty rather than as a range of likely outcomes.

At the opposite end, tract 48491020123 carries a Verus-AI score of 49 and a D grade, standing apart from the rest of the 15 scored Georgetown tracts. Its five-year forecast of 24.12% at a 4.42% CAGR is the lowest forecast among the 15 tracts shown in the ranked table, well below the 37.01% forecast shared by the majority of tracts. Notably, its risk grade is Moderate rather than Elevated or High, which means the low score reflects weaker fundamental signals rather than an elevated risk designation. Its current value of $460,860 is above the neighborhood's population-weighted median of $445,200, suggesting the score discount is not simply a function of price level.

The five lowest-scoring tracts, detailed in the bottom table, present a distinct risk profile worth examining separately. Among those five tracts, three carry Elevated risk designations, 48491020114, 48491021509, and 48491021406, while two carry Moderate designations. The grade breakdown for the bottom five is one D, two C-, and two C. Four of the five tracts show negative income year-over-year figures: tract 48491020114 at -7.08%, tract 48491020123 at -1.34%, tract 48491021509 at -0.53%, and tract 48491021406 at -1.27%. The concentration of income declines in the lower-scoring tracts is consistent with the Verus-AI model's weighting of income trajectory as a forward-looking signal, though income figures derived from survey estimates carry their own measurement uncertainty, particularly in smaller tracts.

Risk designations across all 15 tracts are worth examining in aggregate. Seven of the 15 tracts carry a Moderate risk designation, three carry Low, two carry High, and three carry Elevated. Ten of the 15 tracts carry either Low or Moderate risk, though not all tracts fall into those two categories. The two High-risk tracts, 48491020821 and 48491021402, sit at opposite ends of the score range: 48491020821 scores 67 (C+) while 48491021402 scores 60 (C), suggesting that a High risk designation does not automatically translate into a low composite score when other fundamentals are supportive.

The Verus-AI comparables framework identifies five neighborhoods with structural similarity to Georgetown, ranging in similarity from 94.9% to 96.9%. Hutto (Austin, 96.9% similarity) scores 73; Bloomingdale (Tampa, 95.8%) scores 76; Round Rock (Austin, 95.3%) scores 78; Lutz (Tampa, 95.3%) scores 81; and Gibsonton (Tampa, 94.9%) scores 82.

The current-value spread across comparables is also informative. Georgetown's population-weighted median value of $445,200 exceeds the current values of all five comparables: Hutto at $315,250, Gibsonton at $340,819, Bloomingdale at $368,000, Round Rock at $387,891, and Lutz at $399,100. This inversion, Georgetown carrying higher median values than its higher-scoring peers, suggests that the score gap is not primarily a valuation discount story. Rather, it appears to reflect weaker income dynamics and other fundamental signals that the Verus-AI model weights independently of price level.

Seven tracts are rated Relatively Low, six are rated Very Low, and two are rated Relatively Moderate. The modal climate rating across the 15 tracts is Relatively Low. No tract in Georgetown carries a rating above Relatively Moderate, which places the neighborhood in a favorable position relative to many coastal or flood-prone suburban markets, though the analysis does not extend to insurance or lending implications beyond the labels the data provides.

On the Opportunity Zone front, zero of Georgetown's 15 tracts carry an OZ designation. The OZ-designated count is 0 out of a tract universe of 15. For institutional investors whose mandates require or prefer OZ-eligible assets, Georgetown offers no qualifying tracts under the current designation map. This is not unusual for a higher-income suburb-city, OZ designations were generally concentrated in lower-income census tracts at the time of their establishment, but it is a relevant constraint for certain capital structures. Investors without an OZ requirement are unaffected by this overlay.

The Verus-AI scores and forecasts presented here are model-derived estimates built on a history window spanning 2014 to 2024 and a forecast window covering 2025 to 2029. Scores are expressed on a scale with a maximum of 100. Forecast confidence intervals are 80% intervals, meaning the model assigns an 80% probability that the realized outcome falls within the stated band, not a guarantee, and not a range of equally likely outcomes. The terminal-year band for the leading tract, 48491021404, spans $408,495 to $610,862, a width of $202,367 that illustrates how uncertainty compounds over a five-year horizon.

Survey-based income data carries its own measurement uncertainty, and this uncertainty is generally larger in smaller tracts where sample sizes are limited. Tract 48491020113, for example, has a population of 2,782, the smallest in the ranked set, and posts the sharpest income decline among the 15 tracts shown in the ranked table at -8.42%. Readers should weight that figure with appropriate caution. Rent-to-price yield data is unavailable for one tract, 48491020108, and is presented as such in the ranked table rather than imputed.

The Verus-AI score aggregates multiple signals, price trajectory, income dynamics, rent yield, risk designation, and forecast appreciation, into a single composite. No single input dominates the score in isolation, which means a tract can score well despite a weak reading on one dimension if other dimensions are supportive, and vice versa. The comparables framework uses structural similarity scores to identify peer neighborhoods; the similarity percentages (94.9% to 96.9% for Georgetown's five comparables) reflect model-derived feature proximity, not a judgment about qualitative comparability. All figures should be read as estimates subject to revision as new data becomes available.