Westchase Real Estate (Tampa, 2026)

Westchase is a suburb-city community within the Tampa metro, comprising 8 scored census tracts and a total population of 45,530. The population-weighted median home value across the neighborhood stands at $519,382, and the Verus-AI model assigns a mean score of 57.5 on a 100-point scale, with a median score of 56.5. Those two figures sitting close together suggest a distribution that is roughly symmetric in its middle range, though the full score spread tells a more complicated story.

The score distribution across the 8 tracts runs from a minimum of 35 to a maximum of 71. The 10th-percentile score is 47.6 and the 90th-percentile score is 70.3, meaning the top-scoring tract at 71 sits near the upper bound of that range while the lowest-scoring tract at 35 falls well below the 10th percentile among the 8 tracts shown in the ranked table. That lower outlier is structurally significant: a single tract pulling the floor down by a wide margin compresses the apparent quality of the neighborhood when summary statistics alone are consulted. Analysts relying on the neighborhood mean of 57.5 without examining the tract-level dispersion would materially misread the investment profile.

The grade distribution reinforces this picture. Among all 8 scored Westchase tracts, 2 carry a B- grade, 1 a C, 3 a C-, 1 a D+, and 1 an F. No tract reaches a B or higher. The risk profile is similarly mixed: 3 tracts carry a Low risk designation, 2 carry High, 1 Elevated, and 2 Moderate. Five of the 8 tracts carry a Low or Moderate risk designation, but that majority does not extend to the full set; 3 tracts carry Elevated or High risk.

On the income side, the year-over-year figures within the 8 tracts shown in the ranked table range from a gain of 5.92% at tract 12057011526 to a decline of -9.28% at tract 12057011525. The sharpest income decline among all 8 scored Westchase tracts belongs to tract 12057011525, at -9.28%, a reading that stands out against the positive income trends posted by the two highest-scoring tracts, which show gains of 4.72% and 4.81% respectively.

The ranked table below presents all 8 Westchase tracts ordered by Verus-AI score. The two leading tracts, 12057011519 and 12057011520, score 71 and 70 respectively, both graded B- with Low risk designations. Their current values are $647,059 and $766,987, and their median household incomes are $153,365 and $143,786. These two tracts represent the upper tier of the Westchase score landscape among the 8 tracts shown in the ranked table, and the gap between them and the next-ranked tract at 62 is notable: the score steps down by 8 points before reaching the C-grade cluster.

Tract 12057011506 occupies the middle of the distribution with a score of 62 and a C grade, a Low risk designation, and a current value of $519,382. Its 5-year forecast of 36.05% is broadly in line with the modal forecast for the neighborhood, but its income year-over-year figure of -5.71% is the second-sharpest decline among all 8 scored Westchase tracts, trailing only tract 12057011525 at -9.28%. That combination of a respectable score and a meaningful income headwind is worth flagging for analysts who weight income trajectory heavily.

The C- cluster at scores of 56 and 57 contains three tracts: 12057014400, 12057011525, and 12057011528. Their risk designations diverge: 12057014400 carries High risk, 12057011525 carries Elevated risk, and 12057011528 carries Moderate risk. All three share a 5-year forecast of 37.01% and a CAGR of 6.5%, so the differentiation within this cluster is driven primarily by income trends and risk grade rather than by the price appreciation outlook. Tract 12057011525 posts the sharpest income decline among all 8 scored Westchase tracts at -9.28%, which is the principal reason its risk grade sits at Elevated despite a forecast that matches its peers.

Tract 12057011616 scores 53 and carries a D+ grade with a High risk designation. Its current value of $302,423 is the lowest among the 8 tracts in the ranked table, and its rent-to-price annual yield of 7.95% is the highest in that same set. That yield premium is consistent with a lower-value asset base rather than with superior income generation, and the High risk designation tempers any straightforward yield-chasing interpretation.

Its 5-year forecast of 9.03% and a CAGR of 1.74% stand in sharp contrast to the 37.01% forecast carried by five of the other seven tracts in the ranked table. The mean 5-year forecast for the neighborhood is 32.81%, and the median is 37.01%; the gap between that median and the 9.03% forecast for tract 12057011526 illustrates how a single outlier pulls the mean below the modal figure. The forecast chart for tract 12057011519, the leading tract, shows the 80% confidence band widening from $99,801 at the 2025 horizon to $288,091 at the 2029 terminal year, with a terminal lower bound of $754,108 and an upper bound of $1,042,199. That widening band is a standard feature of multi-year price forecasts and should be read as increasing uncertainty over time, not as a directional signal.

The income year-over-year figures in the ranked table are backward-looking measurements drawn from the 2014-2024 history window. They are not forward projections. Analysts should treat the negative income readings for tracts 12057011525 and 12057011506 as signals of recent household income pressure within those tracts, not as forecasts of continued decline.

The Verus-AI comparables model identifies four neighborhoods with high structural similarity to Westchase. The closest match is Lakeway in the Austin metro, with a similarity score of 99.8%, a Verus-AI score of 73, and a current value of $714,445.

Northdale's score of 68 sits just below the scores of the two leading Westchase tracts at 71 and 70 and above the third-ranked tract at 62. Its current value of $597,300 falls between the leading tract's $647,059 and the population-weighted median value for Westchase of $519,382.

Johns Creek scores 68 with a current value of $545,600; Atlantic Beach scores 74 with a current value of $948,200. Atlantic Beach's score of 74 exceeds the maximum Westchase score of 71 among the 8 tracts shown in the ranked table, and its current value of $948,200 is substantially above any Westchase tract. That gap is informative: it suggests that a neighborhood with similar structural characteristics but a marginally stronger score profile commands a significant value premium in the Jacksonville coastal market.

Taken together, the four comparables span a score range of 68 to 74 and a value range of $545,600 to $948,200.

The absence of Opportunity Zone designations across all 8 tracts is consistent with the neighborhood's above-median income profile; Opportunity Zone eligibility is generally tied to lower-income census tract criteria that Westchase's household income levels do not meet.

The modal climate rating across the 8 tracts is Relatively Low. Of the 8 rated tracts, 4 carry a Relatively Low designation, 3 carry Relatively Moderate, and 1 carries Very Low. No tract carries a High or Relatively High climate risk rating. The distribution is therefore skewed toward the lower end of the climate risk spectrum, which is a meaningful characteristic for a Tampa-area suburb given the broader regional context of coastal and storm-related exposures.

The 3 tracts rated Relatively Moderate represent a step up in climate risk relative to the modal designation, though the data does not assign a High or Relatively High label to any tract in the neighborhood. Analysts should note that climate ratings in this dataset are model-derived estimates and reflect the label as provided; the analysis does not characterize severity beyond the label the data itself supplies.

The Verus-AI score is a composite index scaled from 0 to 100, drawing on a history window of 2014 to 2024. The forecast window covers 2025 to 2029, a 5-year horizon. All forecast values and confidence bands are model-derived estimates. They are not guarantees, and realized values may fall outside the bands.

The income year-over-year figures shown in the ranked table reflect the most recent available annual data within the 2014-2024 history window. They are backward-looking measurements, not forward projections.

Forecast values for individual tracts should be interpreted in the context of their confidence bands. For the leading tract, 12057011519, the 80% confidence band at the 2029 terminal year spans $754,108 to $1,042,199, a width of $288,091. That band width grows from $99,801 at the 2025 horizon, reflecting the standard increase in forecast uncertainty over longer time horizons. Readers should not treat the point forecast as a precise prediction.

The comparables model produces similarity scores on a 0-to-100% scale. A similarity score of 99.8% for Lakeway indicates a high degree of structural resemblance to Westchase as a whole, but comparables are neighborhood-level constructs and do not map directly to individual tracts. This analysis does not constitute investment advice, and no lending or insurance implications are asserted beyond the labels and figures present in the structured data.