Temple Terrace Real Estate (Tampa, 2026)

Temple Terrace is a suburb-city within the Tampa metro, comprising 8 scored census tracts and a total population of 36,041. The population-weighted median home value sits at $333,000, and the mean Verus-AI score across all 8 tracts is 53.25, with a median of 52.0.

The single F-grade tract, scoring 32.0, sits well below the 10th percentile and pulls the minimum materially away from the main cluster. Analysts accustomed to treating Temple Terrace as a uniform suburban submarket should treat that dispersion as a caution: the 8 tracts do not behave as a single investment thesis.

The mean 5-year forecast appreciation across the neighborhood is 29.79%, with the median forecast at 31.52% and the 90th-percentile forecast reaching 37.01%. That divergence between the outlier and the rest of the distribution is analytically significant and is discussed further in the tract scoring section below.

The ranked table below presents all 8 Temple Terrace tracts sorted by Verus-AI score. The grade distribution across the 8 tracts is: two C+, one C, one C-, three D, and one F. No tract in the ranked set reaches a B grade or higher, which places the neighborhood's ceiling at C+ on the current scoring cycle. The two co-leading tracts, 12057010600 and 12057010702, both carry scores of 66 and grades of C+, and they differ in meaningful ways that the table makes visible.

Tract 12057010600 posts the sharpest income year-over-year decline among the 8 tracts in the ranked table, at -10.12%, yet it also carries a current value of $372,507 and a five-year forecast terminal value of $506,981, implying a 36.1% appreciation over the forecast window. Its forecast CAGR is 6.36% and its rent-to-price annual yield is 5.31%. The income deterioration is a material qualifier on an otherwise constructive appreciation outlook; the forecast chart for this leading tract shows the 80% confidence band widening from a lower bound of $371,136 in 2025 to a terminal lower bound of $438,076 and a terminal upper bound of $586,724 by 2029, a band width of $148,648 at the horizon, which reflects genuine uncertainty rather than precision.

Its five-year appreciation forecast of 30.03% is more modest than tract 12057010600's 36.1%, but the positive income trajectory and higher income base suggest a more stable demand foundation. Risk grades differ as well: 12057010600 carries a Low risk designation while 12057010702 carries Moderate.

The five lowest-scoring tracts in the ranked table span grades F through C-, with the grade breakdown being one F, three D, and one C-. Four of those five posted negative income year-over-year changes: tract 12057010811 at -2.14%, tract 12057010810 at -9.58%, tract 12057010701 at -6.53%, and tract 12057010203 at -1.05%. Only the F-grade tract, 12057010204, recorded a positive income change, though at a near-flat 0.05%. The income deterioration across four of the five lowest-ranked tracts is a consistent signal worth monitoring, even where the forecast appreciation figures are not uniformly weak.

Tract 12057010204, the sole F-grade tract, warrants separate treatment. The elevated yield is compensating for, rather than complementing, appreciation potential: the model assigns a score of 32, the minimum in the ranked set, and the forecast appreciation is the lowest among the 8 ranked tracts. Investors drawn to the yield figure should weigh it against the appreciation shortfall relative to the neighborhood mean of 29.79%.

An additional structural observation: tract 12057010203 scores 55 (C-) and carries a High risk designation, yet its five-year forecast of 37.01% ties for the highest appreciation forecast among the 8 ranked tracts, matched only by tract 12057010811, which scores 48 (D) and also carries a High risk designation.

The Verus-AI comparables engine identified five neighborhoods with structural similarity to Temple Terrace, ranked by similarity score. The closest match is North Lamar (Austin), at 92.9% similarity, with a Verus-AI score of 66 and a current value of $386,177. Forest Hills (Tampa) follows at 92.3% similarity, scoring 69 with a current value of $369,269. Onion Creek (Austin) registers 91.9% similarity, scoring 67 at $499,900. Downtown Tampa (Tampa) comes in at 91.5% similarity, scoring 69 at $547,485. Edgewood (Atlanta) rounds out the set at 91.2% similarity, scoring 69 at $474,000.

Several observations emerge from the comparables table. All five comparable neighborhoods carry Verus-AI scores above Temple Terrace's mean of 53.25, the comparables range from 66 to 69, while Temple Terrace's mean sits at 53.25 and its median at 52.0. The comparables were selected for structural similarity, not score similarity, which means the gap between Temple Terrace's mean score and the comparables' scores reflects a genuine relative positioning difference rather than a selection artifact. Three of the five comparables, Onion Creek, Downtown Tampa, and Edgewood, carry current values above $474,000, substantially above Temple Terrace's population-weighted median value of $333,000.

Forest Hills carries a current value of $369,269 and Downtown Tampa a current value of $547,485; both exceed Temple Terrace's population-weighted median of $333,000. The Forest Hills gap is relatively narrow, while the Downtown Tampa gap is substantial.

North Lamar (Austin) is the closest structural match at 92.9% similarity and shares the same Verus-AI score of 66 as Temple Terrace's two leading tracts. The tight score alignment between North Lamar and Temple Terrace's top tracts, combined with the modest value gap, suggests the leading tracts are not dramatically mispriced relative to their closest structural peer, though the neighborhood-level mean score of 53.25 reflects the drag from the lower-scoring tracts.

All 8 Temple Terrace tracts carry climate ratings, and the distribution skews toward the lower end of the risk spectrum. Of the 8 rated tracts, 1 carries a Very Low rating, 4 carry Relatively Low ratings, and 3 carry Relatively Moderate ratings. No tract in the scored set carries a Relatively High or High climate risk designation. The modal climate rating across the 8 tracts is Relatively Low, meaning the plurality of tracts sit in the second-lowest climate risk tier.

The absence of any tract at Relatively High or higher climate risk is a notable characteristic of this particular suburb-city, given Tampa's broader coastal and flood exposure profile. The 3 tracts rated Relatively Moderate represent the upper end of the climate risk distribution within this set; analysts should consult the individual tract overlays for the specific hazard components driving those ratings, as the composite label does not distinguish between flood, wind, heat, or other sub-components.

One of the 8 tracts carries an Opportunity Zone designation. The score reflects market and income fundamentals; OZ status is an overlay that may alter after-tax return profiles independently of the composite score. Investors should verify current OZ eligibility directly with authoritative federal sources, as designations are subject to legislative and regulatory change.

The Verus-AI scores and forecasts presented in this report are model-derived estimates built on a history window spanning 2014 to 2024 and a forecast window covering 2025 to 2029. The score scale runs from 0 to 100. They are not guarantees, and realized outcomes may fall outside the bands.

The forecast chart for the leading tract, 12057010600, illustrates how band width expands with horizon: the 80% interval width is $51,803 in 2025 and widens to $148,648 by 2029. That widening is a structural feature of any multi-year forecast, not a model deficiency. Analysts should treat the terminal band, lower bound $438,076, upper bound $586,724, as a range of plausible outcomes rather than a point estimate.

Several tracts show sharp single-year income declines, most notably tract 12057010600 at -10.12% and tract 12057010810 at -9.58%, the two steepest declines among the 8 tracts in the ranked table, which may reflect survey volatility in smaller tract populations as much as structural income deterioration. Single-year income changes are one input among many in the composite score; they should not be read in isolation.

Comparable neighborhoods are selected by a structural similarity algorithm that considers demographic, income, housing stock, and market dynamic features. Similarity percentages reflect model-derived proximity scores, not human editorial judgment. The comparables are provided for context and relative positioning; they do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell in any named geography. Rent-to-price annual yield figures are model estimates and may differ from realized gross yields depending on vacancy, management costs, and local rental market conditions not captured in the model inputs.

The Verus-AI score is a composite of multiple sub-factors and is intended to support relative ranking within a scored universe, not to predict binary outcomes. A score of 66 does not mean a tract will outperform; a score of 32 does not mean a tract will decline. The score reflects the balance of observable inputs as of the data vintage and should be updated as new data becomes available. Users are encouraged to consult the full tract-level report for sub-factor detail before drawing investment conclusions.