University Real Estate (Tampa, 2026)

The University area of Tampa, also referenced as University Area, Uptown, and USF, is a suburb-city neighborhood comprising 15 constituent tracts, of which 13 carry Verus-AI scores. The total population across those tracts stands at 53,921, making it a meaningfully sized sub-market rather than a narrow corridor. The population-weighted median home value is $159,431, a figure that sits well below the broader Tampa metro's more frequently cited benchmarks and signals a market where entry prices remain accessible relative to the region.

What the headline population and value figures do not immediately convey is the degree of internal heterogeneity. Current values across the 13 scored tracts range from $84,403 for tract 12057010808 to $422,814 for tract 12057010809, a spread of roughly five-to-one within a single neighborhood designation. That dispersion is atypical for a sub-market of this geographic compactness and suggests that the 'University' label aggregates meaningfully distinct micro-markets rather than a uniform residential fabric.

Income dynamics add a further layer of complexity. The year-over-year income change recorded for tract 12057010824 is 111.0%, a figure so far outside the range of the other 12 tracts that it warrants explicit caution; the Verus-AI analysis flags it as a data point that should be interpreted with appropriate skepticism pending corroboration from subsequent data vintages. At the other end, tract 12057011010 carries the sharpest income decline among all 13 scored University tracts, at -18.98%, followed by tract 12057010809 at -14.61% and tract 12057010814 at -13.42%. The mean Verus-AI score for the neighborhood is 46.38, and the median is 49.0, both of which are consistent with a market that the model characterizes as structurally challenged rather than transitional.

The score distribution for the 13 ranked University tracts is notably compressed and skewed toward the lower end of the 100-point scale. The minimum score is 28.0 and the maximum is 60.0, meaning no tract in this set clears 60, a ceiling that, within the 13 tracts shown in the ranked table, is the most structurally distinctive feature of the score distribution. The interquartile range of just 8 points, from 43.0 to 51.0, indicates that the middle of the distribution is tightly clustered, while the tails, particularly the lower tail, pull the mean down to 46.38.

Two tracts share the top Verus-AI score of 60, both graded C: tract 12057010817 and tract 12057010824. Both carry a High risk designation. The grade distribution across all 13 scored tracts is instructive: 2 tracts receive a C, 1 a C-, 3 a D+, 2 a D, 2 a D-, and 3 an F. No tract in the ranked set earns a grade above C. Ten of the 13 tracts carry a High risk designation; one carries Elevated, one Moderate, and one Low. Only 2 of the 13 tracts carry a Low or Moderate risk designation, and the data confirms that not all tracts in the ranked set are Low or Moderate risk.

The forecast picture introduces an inversion worth examining. Tract 12057010817, the co-leader by score at 60, carries a five-year forecast appreciation of 37.01% at a 6.5% CAGR, with a current value of $89,100 and a forecast value of $122,075. Its co-leader, tract 12057010824, carries a more moderate five-year forecast of 29.32% at a 5.28% CAGR, despite sharing the same score. The second-ranked tract by score does not carry the second-highest forecast appreciation among the 13 tracts shown in the ranked table, a meaningful inversion that cautions against treating the score as a direct proxy for price momentum. The forecast chart for tract 12057010817 illustrates the widening 80% confidence band over the five-year horizon: the terminal lower band is $57,986 and the terminal upper band is $256,998, a band width of $199,012 by 2029. That spread reflects genuine model uncertainty and should not be read as a point estimate.

Among the five lowest-ranked tracts, three carry F grades (tracts 12057010820, 12057010814, and 12057010808) and two carry D- grades (tracts 12057011003 and 12057010815). Two of the five bottom tracts show negative year-over-year income changes: tract 12057010814 at -13.42% and tract 12057011003 at -3.24%. The rent-to-price yield pattern among the lowest-ranked tracts is also notable. The highest gross yields among the 13 tracts shown in the ranked table belong to tracts with the lowest absolute current values: tract 12057010808 carries a 20.09% annual rent-to-price ratio at a current value of $84,403, and tract 12057010820 carries 18.43% at $89,921. Both hold F grades and High risk designations. The yield-value inverse relationship here is consistent with distressed-asset pricing rather than a signal of income-generating quality, and the forecast appreciation for both tracts, 20.96% and 19.75% over five years, respectively, trails the neighborhood mean five-year forecast of 31.23% by a substantial margin.

Tract 12057011003 presents a different kind of anomaly within the bottom five. Its current value of $249,340 and forecast value of $341,618 represent a 37.01% five-year gain, matching the modal forecast for the higher-ranked tracts, yet its Verus-AI score of 43 places it fourth from the bottom among the 13 ranked tracts. The -3.24% income change and High risk designation appear to weigh on the composite score despite the relatively constructive price forecast. Readers should consult the ranked table below for the full cross-section of scores, grades, risk designations, and forecast figures before drawing conclusions from any single metric.

The Verus-AI comparables engine identifies five neighborhoods with structural similarity to University Tampa, drawn from four metros. The closest match is Stone Mountain in Atlanta, with a 98.0% similarity score and a Verus-AI score of 60, carrying a current value of $217,145. The second closest is Harlandale in San Antonio, at 97.9% similarity and a score of 62, with a current value of $174,620. Rounding out the set are Sharpstown in Houston at 97.5% similarity and a score of 52 (current value $56,827), Channelview in Houston at 97.4% similarity and a score of 55 (current value $156,200), and Lowry Park in Tampa at 97.4% similarity and a score of 57 (current value $217,200).

Several observations emerge from this comparables set. First, the University Tampa neighborhood's mean Verus-AI score of 46.38 sits below all five comparables; the lowest-scoring comparable, Sharpstown at 52, still exceeds the University Tampa mean. Second, the current value spread among comparables is wide, from $56,827 for Sharpstown to $217,200 for Lowry Park, which brackets the University Tampa population-weighted median of $159,431 from both sides. Third, the sole Tampa comparable, Lowry Park, scores 57 against University Tampa's maximum of 60, suggesting that within the Tampa metro the University area is not an outlier in score terms relative to at least one structurally similar sub-market.

All 13 scored University tracts carry climate ratings, and the modal rating across the set is Relatively Low. Of the 13 climate-rated tracts, 7 are rated Relatively Low, 3 are rated Very Low, and 3 are rated Relatively Moderate. No tract in the set carries a High or Very High climate risk designation, which is a modestly constructive data point for a Florida sub-market where climate exposure is frequently cited as a headwind. The absence of elevated climate ratings does not, however, neutralize the other risk signals present in the score distribution; the two risk dimensions are assessed independently in the Verus-AI framework.

One of the 13 tracts carries an Opportunity Zone designation. That single OZ-designated tract represents a potential overlay for investors subject to capital gains deferral considerations, though the analysis does not assign a score premium to OZ status, and the tract's underlying Verus-AI score and risk grade should be evaluated on their own merits. Readers should verify current OZ eligibility through official federal sources, as program parameters are subject to legislative change beyond the scope of this analysis.

The Verus-AI scores and forecasts presented here are model-derived estimates based on a history window spanning 2014 to 2024 and a forecast horizon of 2025 to 2029. Scores are expressed on a 0-to-100 scale. Forecast confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning the model assigns an 80% probability that the realized value will fall within the stated lower and upper bounds; they are not guarantees and should not be interpreted as such.

Several data-quality flags apply to this dataset. The 111.0% year-over-year income change for tract 12057010824 is the most prominent outlier among all 13 scored University tracts and should be treated with caution; a single-year income figure of this magnitude is more likely to reflect a survey or estimation artifact than a genuine household income doubling. The Verus-AI model incorporates this figure as reported, but users should weight it accordingly and await subsequent data vintages before drawing structural conclusions. Similarly, the 0.0% income change recorded for eight of the 13 tracts may reflect data suppression or estimation constraints rather than literal income stasis.

The neighborhood's 15 constituent tracts include 2 that are not scored, meaning the ranked table below covers 13 of the 15 tracts. Conclusions drawn from the scored set may not fully represent the unscored tracts. Rent-to-price ratios are annualized gross yield estimates and do not account for vacancy, maintenance, management costs, or financing; they are presented as relative indicators rather than net return projections. Climate ratings are model-derived and backward-looking; they do not constitute insurance or lending assessments. The Verus-AI score is a composite of multiple sub-factors; no single metric, forecast appreciation, income trend, or yield, should be used in isolation as a substitute for the composite score.