Brandon Real Estate (Tampa, 2026)

Brandon is a suburb-city within the Tampa metro, comprising 13 constituent census tracts, 12 of which carry a Verus-AI score. The neighborhood's total population stands at 69,940, and its population-weighted median home value is $292,015. Those two figures together sketch a community of meaningful scale operating at a price point that sits below several of its closest comparables, a dynamic explored further in the Comparable Neighborhoods section.

The 10th-percentile score is 52.1 and the 90th-percentile score is 77.3, so the bulk of the distribution is concentrated in the mid-50s to mid-70s, with the tails representing genuinely differentiated tracts rather than statistical noise.

The mean five-year forecast appreciation across the 12 scored Brandon tracts is 36.95%. In practical terms, the Verus-AI model assigns nearly identical price-appreciation trajectories across Brandon regardless of current score, implying that the score dispersion reflects differences in income trends, risk profiles, and yield characteristics rather than divergent macro price paths. Investors who focus solely on the headline forecast number would miss the substantial quality differentiation the ranked table below captures.

The grade distribution across the 12 ranked tracts runs from B+ at the top to D at the bottom, with no A-range grades and no F grades present.

The ranked table below presents all 12 scored Brandon tracts ordered by Verus-AI score. The leading tract, 12057013322, earns a score of 80 and a grade of B+, the highest score among the 12 tracts shown in the ranked table. Its current value is $327,600, its population-weighted median household income is $94,636, and its year-over-year income growth of 9.19% is among the stronger readings in the set. The five-year forecast carries the tract to a model-derived value of $448,840, with an 80% confidence interval running from $401,206 to $502,129 at the 2029 terminal year. The forecast chart for this leading tract illustrates how the confidence band widens from a width of $35,025 in 2025 to $100,923 by 2029, a pattern consistent with compounding uncertainty over a longer horizon rather than any specific near-term risk signal.

Tract 12057013323 itself scores 71 and grades B-, and it is the one tract whose five-year forecast of 36.23% diverges from the 37.01% that characterizes every other tract in the ranked set. Its risk grade of Elevated and its relatively high rent-to-price yield of 8.22% suggest a profile that combines income momentum with above-average risk designation.

The middle of the distribution, roughly scores 61 to 65, contains five tracts graded C or C+. These income declines are worth monitoring because the Verus-AI score incorporates income trajectory as a component, and sustained negative trends could pressure scores in future model runs even if the macro price forecast remains stable.

Tract 12057013307 scores 49 and grades D, the lowest score among the 12 tracts shown in the ranked table. Its income declined -11.76% year-over-year, and its current value of $265,800 is among the lower readings in the set. Tract 12057012212 scores 52 and shows the sharpest income decline among the 12 tracts shown in the ranked table at -12.69%; that same figure is also the sharpest income decline across all 12 scored Brandon tracts. Its current value of $395,700 is notably high relative to its score, a combination that may reflect legacy price appreciation rather than current fundamental support.

Among the five lowest-ranked tracts, four carry negative year-over-year income readings: tracts 12057013307, 12057012212, 12057012304, and 12057012301. Three of the five lowest-ranked tracts carry a High risk designation, and two carry a Moderate designation; none of the five is graded F, with the grade distribution running one D, two D+, and two C. The rent-to-price yields in this group range from 4.65% for tract 12057012212 to 7.84% for tract 12057013307, a spread that reflects meaningfully different income-return profiles even within the bottom tier.

Across the 12 ranked tracts, seven carry a Low or Moderate risk designation, while five carry Elevated or High designations. The risk distribution is not uniformly correlated with score: tract 12057013323, which scores 71, carries an Elevated risk grade, while tract 12057012213, which scores 63, carries a Low risk grade. That divergence suggests the model is weighting income and value fundamentals alongside risk in a way that does not reduce to a simple risk-score equivalence. Readers should consult both the score and the risk grade columns in the ranked table rather than treating either in isolation.

The Verus-AI comparables engine identifies five neighborhoods with structural similarity to Brandon, ranked by similarity score. The closest match is Mandarin in the Jacksonville metro, with a similarity of 96.2% and a Verus-AI score of 78. The next two comparables, Seffner in Tampa and Citrus Park in Tampa, carry similarity scores of 95.6% and 95.5% respectively, with Verus-AI scores of 77 and 78.

Brandon's mean Verus-AI score of 63.92 sits below every comparable neighborhood's score in the five-comparable set, which ranges from 72 for Missouri City to 78 for Mandarin and Citrus Park. The comparables are not presented as direct investment alternatives but as structural benchmarks; the score gap indicates that Brandon's internal mix of income trends and risk designations produces a lower aggregate quality reading than neighborhoods the model considers structurally similar.

On current value, Brandon's population-weighted median of $292,015 sits below Seffner's $309,000, Citrus Park's $386,300, and Missouri City's $329,300, and above Mandarin's $271,400. The value positioning is consistent with Brandon's lower score: the neighborhood offers relative affordability within its comparable set, though that affordability is accompanied by the income-trend and risk-grade pressures documented in the tract-level data. Readers seeking deeper comparable analysis can follow the tract-level deep links provided in the comparables table.

The absence of any Opportunity Zone overlay across all 12 scored Brandon tracts means that the tax-incentive considerations relevant to OZ-designated geographies do not apply here; investment analysis should proceed on standard fundamentals.

The climate-rating distribution across the 12 scored Brandon tracts is as follows: six tracts carry a Relatively Moderate rating, four carry a Relatively Low rating, one carries a Very Low rating, and one carries a Relatively High rating. The modal rating is Relatively Moderate. The distribution is skewed toward the lower end of the climate-risk spectrum: ten of the 12 scored Brandon tracts fall at Relatively Low or Relatively Moderate, and only one reaches Relatively High.

The one tract rated Very Low and the one rated Relatively High represent the tails of a distribution that is otherwise clustered in the middle two categories. Readers should treat these climate ratings as model-derived labels rather than precise engineering assessments, and should consult primary hazard-disclosure sources for property-level due diligence.

The Verus-AI score is a composite index scaled from 0 to 100, incorporating price history, income trends, rent-to-price yield, risk designations, and climate overlays. All forecast confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning the model assigns an 80% probability that the realized value will fall within the stated lower and upper bounds; they are not guarantees and should not be interpreted as such.

The forecast chart for the leading tract, 12057013322, illustrates the band-widening dynamic that characterizes all multi-year forecasts in this framework: the 80% interval width grows from $35,025 in 2025 to $100,923 by 2029. That widening is a structural feature of compounding uncertainty, not a signal of elevated near-term volatility. Readers should weight the terminal-year band width accordingly when comparing point estimates across tracts.

Score and grade assignments are model-derived and reflect conditions as of the data vintage; they are backward- and model-derived estimates, not appraisals or forward-looking guarantees. Income year-over-year figures are single-period readings and may not represent sustained trends. The comparables are identified by structural similarity, not by geographic proximity or regulatory equivalence. Climate ratings are model-derived labels; the data does not specify the underlying hazard types, and no insurance or lending implications are asserted here. Brandon comprises 13 constituent tracts, of which 12 are scored; the unscored tract is excluded from all aggregate calculations presented in this analysis.