Cedar Hills Real Estate (Jacksonville, 2026)

Cedar Hills is a west-side Jacksonville urban neighborhood comprising 11 census tracts and a total population of 55,476. The population-weighted median home value sits at $194,700, a figure that positions the neighborhood at the lower end of the Jacksonville market and reflects a housing stock that has historically attracted cost-sensitive buyers and renters rather than discretionary capital. The Verus-AI analysis covers all 11 scored tracts, and the mean Verus-AI score across those tracts is 54.73 against a median of 54.0, indicating a distribution that is roughly symmetric but compressed toward the middle of the 100-point scale.

Income trends present a more divided picture. Among the 11 ranked tracts, six carry negative year-over-year income changes, ranging from -1.01% to -25.41%. The sharpest income decline among the 11 tracts shown in the ranked table belongs to tract 12031013403, at -25.41%. Against that, tract 12031012800 shows a year-over-year income gain of 16.4%, and the leading tract, 12031012602, shows a gain of 7.94%. The divergence between these income trajectories and the relatively uniform price forecasts is one of the more analytically interesting features of Cedar Hills: the model appears to be pricing in macro-level Jacksonville appreciation while the income fundamentals at the tract level are pulling in opposite directions.

The grade distribution across Cedar Hills's 11 tracts is notably skewed toward the lower half of the letter-grade scale. The ranked table below shows one B-, one C+, three C-, three D+, two D, and one F. No tract earns an A or B grade, and the single B- belongs to tract 12031012602, which also carries the neighborhood's highest Verus-AI score of 71 and the only Low risk designation among all 11 tracts.

Tract 12031012800 presents a different profile: a Verus-AI score of 68, a C+ grade, and an Elevated risk designation, yet it carries a median household income of $73,059, among the highest in the neighborhood, and the strongest year-over-year income growth at 16.4% among the 11 ranked tracts. Its five-year forecast of 37.01% and current value of $197,729 suggest the model is incorporating the income momentum, but the Elevated risk grade introduces a caveat that the income trajectory alone does not resolve. Tract 12031012703 also warrants attention: a score of 59, a C- grade, but a High risk designation and the highest median household income in the ranked set at $83,730, an unusual pairing that suggests the risk flag is driven by factors beyond income, possibly structural or market-liquidity considerations.

The bottom five tracts, detailed in the table below, span grades from F to D+. Four of the five bottom tracts show negative year-over-year income changes. Tract 12031013525, the sole F-grade tract, carries a Verus-AI score of 36, a High risk designation, a -14.15% income year-over-year change, a median household income of $36,511, and a rent-to-price annual yield of 8.32%. That yield is not negligible in isolation, but the income trajectory of -14.15% and the lowest score among the 11 scored Cedar Hills tracts suggest the yield is compensating for meaningful fundamental risk rather than reflecting an undervalued asset. Tract 12031013403, which does not appear in the bottom five by score but carries the sharpest income decline among all 11 scored Cedar Hills tracts at -25.41%, illustrates that score rank and income stress do not always align.

The score distribution data provides useful context: the neighborhood's minimum score is 36 and its maximum is 71, a range of 35 points. The forecast chart for the leading tract (12031012602) shows observed values rising from $98,900 in 2014 to $176,237 in 2024, with the 80% confidence interval widening from a band width of $20,838 in 2025 to $57,677 at the 2029 terminal year. The terminal forecast range of $202,463 to $260,140 reflects meaningful uncertainty over the five-year horizon, consistent with the methodology's 80% confidence level.

The Verus-AI comparables engine identifies five neighborhoods with structural similarity to Cedar Hills, and the geographic clustering in the results is analytically informative. Four of the five comparables are located in the Houston metro, Mission Bend (similarity 98.4%), Aldine (97.8%), Greenspoint (97.8%), and Pasadena (97.5%), while Plant City in the Tampa metro carries a similarity score of 97.6%. The Houston cluster's dominance suggests Cedar Hills shares demographic and housing-stock characteristics more common to large Sun Belt metros with significant working-class suburban inventory than to other Jacksonville neighborhoods.

The Verus-AI scores of the five comparables range from 62 (Plant City) to 71 (Aldine), all above Cedar Hills's mean score of 54.73. That gap is worth examining carefully. The comparables are not drawn from the same scored universe as Cedar Hills's 11 tracts; they are individual tract-level matches. Aldine, at a score of 71, matches the score of Cedar Hills's leading tract but carries a current value of $135,573, well below Cedar Hills's population-weighted median of $194,700. Mission Bend, the closest comparable at 98.4% similarity, scores 65 with a current value of $211,200. Greenspoint scores 64 at $177,200, and Pasadena scores 67 at $124,500. Plant City, the lone in-state comparable, scores 62 with a current value of $192,600 and a similarity score of 97.6%, at the low end of the Houston cluster's range of 97.5% to 98.4%.

The consistent pattern across the comparables is that neighborhoods with similar structural profiles in other metros are scoring higher than Cedar Hills's mean, which may indicate that Cedar Hills's income headwinds, particularly the six tracts with negative year-over-year income trends, are suppressing scores relative to what the physical and demographic profile alone would imply. Alternatively, it may reflect local market-specific factors that the comparables do not share. Readers should consult the individual comparable reports linked in the table below for tract-level detail before drawing cross-metro conclusions.

All 11 Cedar Hills tracts have received climate ratings in the Verus-AI overlay. The modal rating across the neighborhood is Relatively Low, applying to 8 of the 11 tracts. The remaining 3 tracts carry a Relatively Moderate climate rating. No tract in the neighborhood carries a higher climate risk designation than Relatively Moderate, which is a structurally favorable characteristic for a Jacksonville urban neighborhood, given the broader coastal and inland flood exposure that affects portions of Duval County.

Two of the 11 tracts carry Opportunity Zone designations. That count is relevant for tax-advantaged capital deployment strategies, though the analysis does not extend to specific OZ investment structures or holding-period requirements. Notably, the OZ-designated tracts are not identified by name in the structured data, so readers should cross-reference the tract IDs in the ranked table below against federal OZ maps to confirm eligibility. The presence of two OZ tracts in a neighborhood where several tracts carry D or F grades and negative income trends is consistent with the federal program's targeting logic, which prioritizes economically distressed census tracts.

The combination of a predominantly Relatively Low climate rating and two OZ-designated tracts creates a layered overlay picture: the physical risk profile appears manageable at the neighborhood level, while the economic distress indicators that triggered OZ designation in two tracts are visible in the income and score data.

The Verus-AI scores and forecasts presented here are model-derived estimates built on a history window of 2014 to 2024 and projected forward through a forecast window of 2025 to 2029. The score scale runs from 0 to 100. Forecast confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning the model estimates an 80% probability that realized values will fall within the upper and lower bounds shown in the forecast chart, not a guarantee of any specific outcome. The band widths widen materially over the five-year horizon, as illustrated by the leading tract's terminal band width of $57,677.

A single-year income decline of -25.41% for tract 12031013403, for example, may reflect survey-year volatility in the American Community Survey estimates as much as a structural deterioration; the model incorporates this signal but does not isolate its cause. Similarly, rent-to-price annual yield figures are model-derived estimates and do not account for vacancy, maintenance, financing costs, or local landlord-tenant regulatory conditions.

The comparables analysis uses a proprietary similarity algorithm; a 97.5% similarity score indicates high structural resemblance across the feature set the model uses, but it does not imply identical market dynamics or regulatory environments across metros. Cross-metro comparisons should be treated as directional rather than precise. Opportunity Zone designations are drawn from federal program data and are subject to change; readers should verify current eligibility independently. Climate ratings are relative designations within the model's rated universe and do not constitute engineering assessments or insurance underwriting opinions.