Roswell Real Estate (Atlanta, 2026)

Roswell is a suburb-city within the Atlanta metro, comprising 21 census tracts and a total population of 78,574. The population-weighted median home value sits at $519,900, a figure that places the market firmly in the upper-middle tier of Atlanta-area residential real estate. The Verus-AI model scores all 21 tracts, producing a mean Verus score of 54.9 and a median of 57.0 on a 100-point scale, a distribution that sits meaningfully below the midpoint of the grading scale and suggests the market carries more internal heterogeneity than its suburban reputation might imply.

The score distribution itself is instructive. The 10th-percentile tract scores 37.0, while the 90th-percentile tract scores 66.0, a spread of 29 points across all 21 scored Roswell tracts.

The mean five-year forecast across all 21 scored Roswell tracts is 29.73%, with the median forecast at 29.9%. However, the aggregate mean obscures a wide tail of underperforming tracts, and investors relying solely on the market-level average risk misallocating capital to tracts whose individual forecasts fall well below that figure.

The grade distribution across all 21 scored Roswell tracts is concentrated in the C-range and below. One tract carries a B grade, two carry C+, seven carry C, two carry C-, four carry D+, two carry D, and three carry F. That means 11 of the 21 tracts score at C- or lower, a concentration in the lower half of the grading scale that runs counter to the common perception of Roswell as a uniformly strong suburban market. The single B-grade tract, 13121011417, leads the ranked table with a Verus score of 75 and a current value of $519,900.

The top of the distribution is examined in the ranked table below. Tract 13121011417 stands apart from the rest: it is the only B-grade tract among the 21 scored Roswell tracts, carries a Low risk designation, and posts a median household income of $146,071 with a year-over-year income gain of 12.27%. Its five-year forecast of 32.54% implies a terminal value of $689,069 by 2029.

This widening is a standard feature of multi-year price forecasts and is not specific to this tract; it reflects compounding uncertainty over the forecast horizon.

Two tracts, 13121011436 and 13121011431, each score 66 and 63, respectively, and both carry five-year forecasts of 37.01%, the highest forecast value among the 21 tracts in the ranked table. Three additional tracts, 13121011438, 13121011445, and 13121011421, also carry 37.01% forecasts, though their Verus scores range from 57 to 63 and their risk designations vary from Moderate to Moderate. The clustering of multiple tracts at the 37.01% forecast ceiling is a feature of the model's output worth noting; it suggests the model's upper bound for this market is being reached by several tracts simultaneously, and differentiation among them must rely on score, risk grade, and income trajectory rather than forecast alone.

Three of the five bottom tracts, 13121010125, 13121011430, and 13121011434, show negative year-over-year income changes. The sharpest income decline among all 21 scored Roswell tracts belongs to tract 13121011421, at -18.26%, followed by tract 13121010125 at -17.79%. Tract 13121010125, the lowest-scoring tract in the ranked table with a Verus score of 26, carries an Elevated risk designation and a five-year forecast of only 17.46%, the second-weakest five-year outlook among the 21 tracts shown in the ranked table. Its current value of $236,600 and forecast terminal value of $277,917 imply a modest absolute gain that may not compensate for the income deterioration and elevated risk profile the model identifies.

Risk designations across all 21 scored Roswell tracts show 11 tracts rated Low, 5 Moderate, 2 High, and 3 Elevated. Sixteen of the 21 tracts carry Low or Moderate risk designations, though the data confirms that not all 21 do. Rent-to-price yield data is unavailable for three tracts, 13121011436, 13121011446, and 13121011513, a gap that limits income-return analysis for those positions.

The Verus-AI model identifies four comparable neighborhoods for Roswell, selected on the basis of structural similarity scores ranging from 98.0% to 99.0%. Three are within the Atlanta metro, Dunwoody, Tucker, and North Druid Hills, and one, Westbury, is drawn from the Houston metro. The comparables table renders the full detail; the analytical focus here is on what the comparison reveals about Roswell's relative positioning.

Roswell's mean Verus score of 54.9 trails all four comparables. Dunwoody scores 74, Tucker scores 76, North Druid Hills scores 76, and Westbury scores 66. Dunwoody, at a current value of $570,200 and a score of 74, sits between those two on both dimensions.

The comparison is complicated by the fact that Roswell's mean score of 54.9 is a market-level average across 21 heterogeneous tracts, while each comparable entry represents a single tract. Roswell's leading tract, 13121011417, scores 75, essentially at parity with Dunwoody's 74 and within one point of Tucker and North Druid Hills.

Climate risk ratings are available for all 21 Roswell tracts. Of those, 13 carry a Very Low climate rating and 8 carry a Relatively Low rating. The modal climate rating across all 21 scored Roswell tracts is Very Low, indicating that the market as a whole sits at the favorable end of the climate risk spectrum as assessed by the Verus-AI model. No tract in the scored universe carries a rating above Relatively Low, which is consistent with Roswell's inland suburban geography.

The Opportunity Zone overlay shows zero OZ-designated tracts among all 21 scored Roswell tracts. The absence of any Opportunity Zone designation means that tax-advantaged OZ investment structures are not available within this market, and investors seeking that specific vehicle will need to look elsewhere. This is not unusual for established, higher-value suburban markets, where OZ designations are typically concentrated in lower-income or distressed geographies. The climate and OZ data are overlays on the Verus-AI score rather than inputs to it; they provide regulatory and physical context that the score alone does not capture.

The combination of a favorable climate profile and no OZ designations positions Roswell as a market where physical risk is relatively contained but where the tax-incentive overlay that sometimes attracts institutional capital to lower-scored tracts is absent. For long-hold residential strategies, the Very Low and Relatively Low climate ratings across all 21 tracts suggest limited near-term exposure to climate-driven insurance or valuation disruption, though the Verus-AI model does not project insurance or lending implications beyond the labels the data itself provides.

The five-year forecast window runs from 2025 through 2029. All forecast values are model-derived estimates; they are not appraisals, broker opinions, or guarantees of future performance. Confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning the model estimates an 80% probability that the realized value will fall within the stated range, not a certainty, and not a floor or ceiling.

The forecast for the leading tract, 13121011417, illustrates the practical meaning of these bands. The 2029 point estimate is $689,069, but the 80% interval spans $618,285 to $767,956.

Income year-over-year figures in the ranked table reflect the most recent annual change in median household income for each tract and are backward-looking. They are not forecasts of future income growth. The unusually large income gain recorded for tract 13121010214, 185.44% year-over-year, is an outlier that likely reflects a data revision, a small-sample survey swing, or a structural change in the tract's household composition rather than a sustained income trend; it should be interpreted with caution and not extrapolated. Rent-to-price yields, where available, are annual figures derived from model estimates of market rent and current home value; they are unavailable for three tracts and should not be imputed.

The scored universe for this report comprises all 21 Roswell tracts. Superlatives and rankings in this report are scoped to the 21 tracts shown in the ranked table unless the text explicitly states otherwise. No comparison to a national average or broader metro average is made in this report, as no such figure is present in the structured data underlying the analysis. Readers should treat all figures as estimates subject to revision as new survey data and transaction records become available.