Pasadena Real Estate (Houston, 2026)

Pasadena is a suburb-city within the Houston metro, comprising 30 census tracts and a total population of 122,763. The population-weighted median home value sits at $162,863, a figure that positions the market well below many Houston-area peers and reflects a housing stock that skews toward working-class and lower-middle-income ownership. The mean five-year forecast across all 30 scored tracts is 31.33%, which, if realized, would represent a meaningful nominal appreciation cycle from a relatively modest base.

The income picture is the most consequential near-term signal in the data, and it is broadly cautionary across the 30 scored Pasadena tracts. Among the 30 tracts shown in the ranked table, the sharpest year-over-year income decline belongs to tract 48201323300, at -28.98%. The next four steepest declines across all 30 scored Pasadena tracts are tract 48201323100 at -24.2%, tract 48201323701 at -19.43%, tract 48201322000 at -14.27%, and tract 48201321500 at -13.33%. These are not marginal softening signals; they indicate structural household income erosion in a meaningful share of the market, which the Verus-AI score penalizes directly.

Against that backdrop, a handful of tracts show positive income momentum. Tract 48201322200 leads the ranked set with a year-over-year income gain of 12.91%, followed by tract 48201321900 at 8.26% and the top-ranked tract 48201323801 at 6.53%. The divergence between the income gainers and the income decliners within a single suburb-city is wider than a casual market summary would suggest, and it is one reason the score distribution spans from 0 to 69 across the 30 tracts rather than clustering tightly around the mean of 50.7.

The Verus-AI score for Pasadena ranges from 0 to 69 across all 30 scored tracts, against a scale maximum of 100. The score distribution shows a 10th percentile of 39.2, a 25th percentile of 45.5, a median of 52.5, a 75th percentile of 58.0, and a 90th percentile of 64.3. The mean score of 50.7 and the maximum of 69 together indicate that no tract in Pasadena reaches the top quarter of the theoretical scale, which is a notable constraint on the market's overall positioning. The ranked table below presents all 30 tracts with their scores, grades, risk designations, and forecast figures.

The grade distribution across the 30 ranked tracts reflects this compression: three tracts carry a C+ grade, four a C, six a C-, six a D+, four a D, four a D-, and three an F. No tract earns a B or higher. The leading tract, 48201323801, scores 69 with a C+ grade and a Moderate risk designation. Its current value of $223,991 and five-year forecast value of $306,887 imply a 37.01% nominal appreciation over the forecast window, equivalent to a 6.5% compound annual growth rate. The forecast chart for this leading tract illustrates the 80% confidence band, which widens from $60,496 at the 2025 horizon to $175,881 at the 2029 terminal year. That terminal band width, spanning from $231,298 to $407,179, illustrates the degree of uncertainty that accumulates over a five-year horizon even for the highest-scoring tract among the 30 scored Pasadena tracts.

The second-ranked tract, 48201322800, scores 68 with a Low risk designation and a current value of $137,500. Its rent-to-price ratio of 12.22% is among the more notable yield figures in the ranked set and may attract income-oriented capital, though its income growth of 2.14% year-over-year is modest. Tract 48201321900, ranked third at 67, carries the highest rent-to-price ratio among the top three at 15.49%, alongside an income gain of 8.26%, a combination that stands out relative to the broader market's income headwinds.

Risk designations across the 30 ranked tracts are split: 10 carry a Low designation, 5 Moderate, 5 Elevated, and 10 High. Fifteen of the 30 tracts carry a Low or Moderate risk designation, meaning the other 15 carry Elevated or High designations. The five lowest-ranked tracts in the ranked table warrant separate attention. Three of the five carry an F grade and two carry a D-, so not all five are grade F. Of the five, four carry negative year-over-year income figures: tract 48201323601 at -5.43%, tract 48201323500 at -13.11%, tract 48201324200 at -3.65%, and tract 48201323701 at -19.43%. Tract 48201324102 shows a 0.0% income change, and its rent-to-price ratio is unavailable. Tract 48201323601 is the most extreme case among the five lowest-ranked tracts: a Verus-AI score of 0, a five-year forecast of -4.43%, and a current value of $105,000, making it the only tract in the ranked set projecting nominal price contraction over the forecast window.

Three Opportunity Zone-designated tracts are present within the 30-tract universe, a detail that may be relevant to tax-advantaged capital structures, though the analysis does not extend to specific OZ investment mechanics. The ranked table below identifies these designations alongside the full score and forecast data.

The Verus-AI model identifies four comparable neighborhoods based on structural similarity to Pasadena's leading tract, 48201323801. The comparables, in descending similarity order, are Oceanway (Jacksonville metro, 98.4% similarity, score 66, current value $256,500), Spring (Houston metro, 98.2% similarity, score 65, current value $202,300), Alamo Heights (San Antonio metro, 97.9% similarity, score 77, current value $157,362), and Live Oak (San Antonio metro, 97.8% similarity, score 70, current value $226,600).

Two of the four comparable neighborhoods score above Pasadena's leading tract score of 69 among the 30 scored Pasadena tracts: Alamo Heights at 77, Live Oak at 70, and the remaining two, Oceanway at 66 and Spring at 65, score below it. This is a meaningful observation. Alamo Heights, at a current value of $157,362, scores 77 while Pasadena's top tract at $223,991 scores only 69.

The Houston-metro comparable, Spring, scores 65 at a current value of $202,300, which is below Pasadena's leading tract on both dimensions. Oceanway in Jacksonville scores 66 at $256,500, a higher price point with a lower score than Pasadena's top tract. Readers seeking deeper tract-level data on any comparable can follow the deep links provided in the comparables table.

All 30 of Pasadena's scored tracts carry a climate rating, providing complete coverage for this overlay across the 30 scored Pasadena tracts. The modal climate rating is Relatively Moderate, which applies to 20 of the 30 tracts. Seven tracts carry a Relatively Low rating, two carry a Relatively High rating, and one carries a Very Low rating. No tract in the scored universe carries the most severe climate designation, which is a modestly constructive signal relative to other Gulf Coast markets, though the two Relatively High-rated tracts represent a non-trivial share of the population given Pasadena's total of 122,763 residents.

Three of the 30 tracts carry Opportunity Zone designations. OZ status can affect after-tax return profiles for qualifying capital gains investments, but the analysis does not model tax treatment, and the presence of an OZ designation does not itself indicate a favorable Verus-AI score. Investors considering OZ-designated tracts should cross-reference the score and risk designation for each tract in the ranked table below, as the three OZ tracts span a range of score and risk outcomes within the Pasadena universe.

The concentration of tracts in the Relatively Moderate band suggests that climate-related risk, as rated by the model, is not a primary differentiator among Pasadena tracts at this time, though the two Relatively High-rated tracts may warrant additional scrutiny in the context of insurance cost trends and long-term holding period assumptions.

The Verus-AI score is derived from a model trained on data spanning 2014 to 2024, with forecasts covering 2025 through 2029. The score scale runs from 0 to 100, and all figures in this analysis are model-derived estimates based on that history window. The 30 tracts scored here represent the complete Pasadena universe as defined by the model; the scored_tract_count equals the constituent_tract_count of 30, meaning no tracts were excluded from scoring.

Forecast values are point estimates accompanied by 80% confidence intervals, not guarantees. An 80% confidence interval means that, under the model's assumptions, the true outcome is expected to fall within the band 80% of the time; it does not mean outcomes outside the band are impossible. The forecast chart for the leading tract, 48201323801, illustrates how the band width expands from $60,496 in the first forecast year to $175,881 at the 2029 terminal year, a widening that is typical of multi-year price forecasts and should be interpreted as increasing uncertainty, not increasing precision.

They are not projections. Climate ratings are model-derived labels; the analysis does not invent insurance or lending implications beyond the label the data provides. Opportunity Zone designations are regulatory facts as of the data vintage and may be subject to legislative change. Scores are not directly comparable across different metropolitan areas without accounting for the scored universe from which each distribution is drawn; a score of 69 in Pasadena reflects positioning within all 30 scored Pasadena tracts and should not be read as equivalent to a score of 69 in a different market with a different score distribution.

The population figure of 122,763 and the population-weighted median value of $162,863 are aggregates across all 30 tracts. Individual tract populations and values vary substantially, as the ranked table below shows, with current values ranging from $73,790 for tract 48201324200 to $452,622 for tract 48201321301. That range, nearly a six-to-one ratio within a single suburb-city, underscores why tract-level analysis is more informative than a single market-level summary statistic for Pasadena real estate.