Brookhaven Real Estate (Atlanta, 2026)

Brookhaven is a suburb-city within the Atlanta metro, comprising 13 census tracts and a total population of 45,786. The population-weighted median home value across those tracts stands at $626,800, a figure that masks considerable internal dispersion: current values in the ranked table below range from $364,200 for tract 13089021410 to $1,257,400 for tract 13121010005, a spread that reflects the heterogeneous character of what is often treated as a single, uniform market.

The mean five-year forecast appreciation across all 13 scored Brookhaven tracts is 28.77%, with a median of 29.88%. The distribution is left-skewed by a single outlier: the 10th-percentile forecast sits at 26.29% while the 90th percentile reaches 36.33%, though the downside outlier pulls the mean modestly below the median. One tract, 13089021104, is a clear outlier on the downside, carrying a five-year forecast of -3.5%, which is the only negative forecast among the 13 scored Brookhaven tracts and creates a discontinuity at the bottom of the distribution rather than a smooth gradient.

Median household income varies sharply across tracts. Two tracts, 13089021101 and 13121010005, report median household incomes at $250,001, the top of the reported range, while tract 13089021418 reports $47,653 and tract 13089021420 reports $53,301.

Across the 13 tracts shown in the ranked table, Verus-AI scores range from 11 to 63 on a 100-point scale. The score distribution data shows a 10th percentile of 49.2 and a 90th percentile of 61.8, which means the bulk of tracts cluster in a relatively narrow band in the low-to-mid 50s. The mean Verus-AI score for Brookhaven is 52.54 and the median is 55.0. The grade distribution reflects this compression: among the 13 ranked tracts, 3 carry a C grade, 4 carry C-, 4 carry D+, 1 carries a D, and 1 carries an F.

The leading tract, 13089021411, holds a Verus-AI score of 63 and a grade of C. Its score of 63 is the highest among the 13 tracts in the ranked table, but the margin over the next-ranked tract, 13089021412 at 62, is narrow. What is more analytically notable is the gap at the bottom: tract 13089021104 scores 11, against the next-lowest score of 49 for tract 13089021608.

Three of those five tracts, specifically 13089021104, 13089021608, and 13089021421, show negative year-over-year income changes, while the remaining two, 13089021420 and 13089021418, show flat income trends at 0.0%.

Risk designations across all 13 ranked tracts show 9 rated Moderate, 3 rated Low, and 1 rated Elevated. The single Elevated designation belongs to tract 13089021405, which scores 55 and carries a five-year forecast of 36.1% and a current value of $850,300. The three Low-risk tracts, 13089021412, 13089021101, and 13089021416, score 62, 61, and 58 respectively, suggesting that lower risk tends to cluster toward the upper portion of the score range in this market, though the relationship is not perfectly monotonic.

Among the 13 ranked tracts, the sharpest year-over-year income decline belongs to tract 13089021411, at -16.51%, which is also the leading tract by Verus-AI score. This is a counter-intuitive pairing: the highest-scoring tract in the ranked table is simultaneously experiencing the steepest income contraction among the 13 tracts shown. The model appears to weight other factors, including the tract's current value of $1,063,100 and its five-year forecast of 36.13%, heavily enough to offset the income headwind. Tract 13089021608 shows a nearly comparable income decline of -16.42%, and tract 13089021103 shows -15.49%; all three appear in the scored_universe's list of steepest income declines across all 13 scored Brookhaven tracts.

The forecast chart for the leading tract, 13089021411, illustrates how uncertainty compounds over a five-year horizon. The 80% confidence band at the 2029 terminal year runs from $1,097,797 to $1,907,752, a width of $809,955. In the near term, the 2025 band width is $280,162, widening to $422,492 by 2026 and reaching $551,768 by 2027. Readers should treat the central forecast of $1,447,178 as a model-derived point estimate within that 80% interval, not as a precise prediction. The observed value series for this tract, running from $357,900 in 2014 to $1,063,100 in 2024, provides the historical context against which the forecast trajectory should be evaluated.

The Verus-AI comparables engine identifies five neighborhoods with structural similarity to Brookhaven, drawn from other Sun Belt metros. The closest match is Bouldin Creek in the Austin metro, with a similarity score of 99.2%, a Verus-AI score of 68, and a current value of $1,130,500. The second closest is Hyde Park in the Tampa metro, at 98.5% similarity, a score of 61, and a current value of $1,330,400. The Heights in the Houston metro follows at 98.3% similarity, a score of 60, and a current value of $923,900.

Two additional Austin-metro comparables round out the set: Jollyville at 98.0% similarity, a score of 62, and a current value of $643,200; and Travis Heights at 97.8% similarity, a score of 64, and a current value of $1,175,000. The concentration of Austin comparables, three of the five, is notable and suggests that Brookhaven's structural profile, in terms of income levels, value tiers, and demographic composition, aligns more closely with Austin-area submarkets than with Tampa or Houston counterparts.

Brookhaven's mean Verus-AI score of 52.54 sits below all five comparables, which range from 60 to 68. This gap is worth examining rather than dismissing: it may reflect the internal heterogeneity of Brookhaven's 13 tracts, including the outlier tract 13089021104 with its score of 11, which pulls the mean downward. If that tract is treated separately, the remaining 12 tracts would produce a materially higher mean, though that figure is not directly provided in the data and should not be inferred as a precise number.

All 13 Brookhaven tracts have received climate ratings, and the distribution is favorable relative to many urban markets. Seven tracts carry a Very Low climate rating and six carry a Relatively Low rating, making Very Low the modal designation across the neighborhood. No tract carries a Moderate, High, or Very High climate rating. The absence of any Opportunity Zone designations across all 13 tracts, with an OZ-designated count of zero, means that the tax-incentive overlay that has influenced capital flows in other Atlanta-area submarkets is not a factor in Brookhaven.

The uniformly low climate risk profile is a structural characteristic of the market that distinguishes Brookhaven from coastal or flood-prone suburban markets. However, the data provides only a label-level designation; the analysis does not extend to specific peril types, insurance cost trajectories, or lending implications beyond what the rating itself conveys. Readers should treat the climate ratings as one input among several rather than as a comprehensive physical risk assessment. The overlay summary table alongside this section shows the full tract-by-tract breakdown.

The Verus-AI score is computed on a scale of 0 to 100 and incorporates a history window spanning 2014 to 2024. The forecast window covers 2025 to 2029, a five-year horizon. Confidence bands are 80% intervals, meaning that under the model's assumptions, the true outcome is expected to fall within the band 80% of the time; they are not guarantees and should not be interpreted as such.

All forecast values, income trends, and rent-to-price ratios are model-derived estimates based on historical patterns observed through 2024. One tract, 13121010005, has no rent-to-price annual yield available in the data; this is noted in the ranked table and should be accounted for in any yield-focused analysis.

The comparables are identified by a similarity metric that reflects structural and demographic alignment; a high similarity percentage indicates that the comparable neighborhood's profile closely matches Brookhaven's, but it does not imply that price trajectories will converge. Forecast figures for individual tracts reflect tract-level model outputs and may diverge from neighborhood-level aggregates due to weighting and composition effects. The mean five-year forecast of 28.77% and the median of 29.88% are population-weighted aggregates across all 13 scored tracts; individual tract forecasts, visible in the ranked table, range from -3.5% to 36.71% and should be evaluated on their own terms.